Page 9 - MEOG Week 08 2022
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MEOG                                     POLICY & SECURITY                                            MEOG


       Draft JCPOA text does not include




       oil sanctions in phase one




        IRAN             A US-Iranian draft agreement taking shape to  including unfreezing about $7bn in Iranian
                         revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of  funds frozen by US sanctions in South Korean
                         Action (JCPOA) between Iran and major pow-  banks, as well as the release of Western prisoners
                         ers reportedly lays out phases of mutual steps  held in Iran, something which US lead negotia-
                         that would bring both Tehran and Washington  tor at the talks, Robert Malley, has suggested is a
                         back into full compliance with the accord, but,  requirement for a deal.
                         notably, does not include waivers on oil sanc-  Only once that initial wave of measures has
                         tions in the first phase.            been taken and confirmed would the main phase
                           France – which along with the US, Britain,  of sanctions-lifting begin, Reuters reported. That
                         Germany, the European Union, Russia and  would culminate in what many diplomats call
                         China are still negotiating details of the draft   Re-Implementation Day – a nod to the original
                         accord – on February 16 said Iran must make its  deal’s Implementation Day.
                         mind up within days as to whether it will accept   The duration of these phases, the news
                         the revised text that would enable the deal signa-  agency reported the diplomats as saying, has not
                         tories to relaunch the JCPOA.        yet been agreed, and the text includes an X for
                           Without a functioning deal in place, the  the number of days between the milestone days
                         major powers, working with the UN, cannot  such as Re-Implementation Day. Various offi-
                         ensure that Iran’s nuclear development pro-  cials have estimated the time from an agreement
                         gramme will remain verifiably purely civilian  until Re-Implementation Day at between one
                         in nature. In return for re-establishing its coop-  and three months.
                         eration with the JCPOA, Iran should see major   As in the original deal, the new agreement is
                         sanctions levied against its economy, including  expected to see the US granting waivers to sanc-
                         its oil export industry, removed.    tions on Iran’s oil sector rather than lifting them
                           Iran has always insisted that its nuclear  outright. The waivers would be renewed every
                         objectives are entirely peaceful and that it sim-  few months.
                         ply wants to master nuclear technology for civil
                         uses, particularly atomic energy. Ayatollah Ali  Finishing line
                         Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, reiterated that  On February 22, Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov
                         principle on February 17. “We will sooner or  said via Twitter that a potential deal is nearing
                         later need peaceful nuclear energy. If we do not  finalisation. “Apparently the negotiations on res-
                         pursue it ... our independence will be harmed,”  toration of #JCPOA are about to cross the finish
                         Khamenei said in a televised speech, supporting  line,” he said.
                         Tehran’s negotiating team in the ongoing JCPOA   The same day, a senior Iranian official in Teh-
                         talks in Vienna.                     ran told Reuters: “Iran has always and repeatedly
                           Western powers, however, remain anxious  expressed its readiness to exchange prisoners.
                         that no other state has enriched uranium to such  Months ago we were ready to do it but the Amer-
                         a high level as the Iranians have achieved without  icans ruined the deal,”, without elaborating.
                         going on to develop nuclear weapons.   “Now I believe some of them will be released,
                           The draft text of the reshaped JCPOA is more  maybe five or six of them. But those talks about
                         than 20 pages long. According to Reuters, which  prisoners are not linked to the nuclear agree-
                         cited three diplomats familiar with the nuclear  ment, rather associated with it. This is a human-
                         deal talks, it stipulates a sequence of steps to be  itarian measure by Iran.”
                         implemented once the text has been approved by   These comments follow quotes provided by
                         deal signatories, starting with a phase including  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdol-
                         Iran suspending uranium enrichment above 5%  lahian to Reuters on February 19 that the Islamic
                         purity.                              Republic was prepared for an immediate pris-
                           The  text  is  said  to  allude  to  measures  oner exchange with the US.™


















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