Page 5 - FSUOGM Week 09 2023

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

How big is Russia's "ghost fleet"

of oil tankers?

Russia has amassed a ghost fleet of tankers to handle its crude. But its size is

far from clear.

HOW many ships are in Russia’s “ghost fleet” of 2mn bpd left by pipeline – mainly the Druzhba
RUSSIA tankers? No one has a clear idea: estimates run pipeline with a capacity of 1.4mn bpd that runs
from 100 to 600 tankers depending on whether from Siberia to Central Europe, and the Eastern
WHAT: you include the old tankers Russia has been Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) that connects to
Russia has acquired snapping up in the last year or the dark fleets China with a capacity of around 1mn bpd.
tankers to handle its oil, operated by Russia’s partners like Iran and Ven- “Together with another pipeline through
to protect trade from ezuela that have been under sanctions for years. Kazakhstan to the Black Sea port of Novorossi-
sanctions. But clearly the size of the fleet is significant and ysk, ESPO allows Russia to route around 15-20%
able to carry a large share of sanction-busting of its crude oil exports through channels that
WHY: crude and products to non-aligned countries cannot be reached by international sanctions,”
Sanctions have made around the world. SSRP said in a recent report.
it harder for Russia Russia has spent a total of $2.2bn assembling “Russia has attempted to route larger quan-
to secure tankers the fleet, of which $850mn was spent in the last tities through its Russian Pacific Oceanport at
internationally. year on expanding the dark fleet. If the fleet really Kozmino. But as we see with ESPO – which also
is 600 ships-strong then that is enough to carry supplies crude oil to Kozmino – Russia’s abil-
WHAT NEXT: all of Russia’s oil exports to “friendly countries”, ity to redirect exports is limited by the existing
If Russia has 600 tankers, as experts estimate it needs some 240 tankers for infrastructure. Ports close to China and India
as some reports claim, its seaborne oil export trade. are reaching capacity limits, while those freed
then it has enough Getting hold of enough tankers is a crucial up by the loss of the European market (in the
capacity to handle all its problem for Russia, as insufficient numbers will Baltic Sea) are located far away – increasing not
exports. lead to infrastructure constraints on exports and only delivery times (to around a month) and
production. Not surprisingly, Russia is attempt- costs, but also requiring a much larger number
ing to route deliveries in a way that minimises of ships. Nonetheless, we find that Russia is ship-
shipment times, and thus costs, think-tank Brue- ping crude oil to India from the Baltic Sea and
gel said in a recent report. Black Sea, to maintain export volumes.
The first option open to Russia is to make On December 5 measures from the sixth and
more use of its oil pipelines. Russia exported eighth package of sanctions took effect. These
over 6mn barrels per day in 2022, of which about include a tough flat ban on importing Russian

Week 09 02•March•2023 www. NEWSBASE .com P5