Page 8 - FSUOGM Week 09 2023

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

fill up with geolocated tankers loitering off the 93 MRs – all smaller classes of tanker.
Greek coast that are clearly involved in transfer- Analysis at the publication concluded: “Rus-
ring Russian oil to other ships as a way of erasing sia now has access to more than enough crude
the origin of the oil. tankers, but its clean fleet availability is barely
“One of the problems with the oil sanctions enough to meet its export goals.”
is there is no percentage limit on mixing oil,” This suggests that Russia may have to limit its
Weafer told bne IntelliNews. “That means once exports of oil products but will be able to con-
the crude is mixed with another crude it ceases tinue to export all its crude. Moreover, Splash
to be “Russian oil” and can perfectly legally be found that the centre of gravity for trading
shipped by EU vessels.” Russian oil exports has shifted from the Lon-
The shipping journal TradeWinds said in an don-based Baltic Exchange to the United Arab
article on December 4 that an estimated 400 oil Emirates (UAE).
tankers have been sold to “unknown buyers or “Dubai has become a hotbed for companies
newcomers to the sector” since Russia’s invasion controlling shadow tankers and the sanctioning
of Ukraine. of Sun Ship Management would undoubtedly
“The 393 sales represent 43% of the deals create more hurdles for Russia moving its bar-
since the invasion on February 24 and the start rels,” BRS stated in a recent tanker report as cited
of an upheaval in the oil trade that sent sec- by Splash.
ond-hand prices soaring and propelled tanker Splash’s tanker count tallies is less than the
rates to 18-year highs, data from VesselsValue count from the website TankerTrackers.com
shows,” the publication reports. that tweeted Russia’s ghost fleet is even bigger:
The FT came to the same conclusion: “The 186 VLCC/ULCC's (2 new ones just this past
largely anonymous tanker purchases can be week), 107 Suezmax, 142 Aframax, 31 Panamax
tracked by the big increase in unnamed or new and 73 Handies that can carry oil products, but
buyers appearing in registries. The vessels are was including Russia’s access to tankers from
generally 12-15 years old and would be expected Iran and Venezuela.
to be scrapped in the next few years, said Anoop Amongst the highest estimates for the size of
Singh, head of tanker research at Braemar,” the the ghost fleet was from leading oil trader Trafig-
paper reported. ura, which told Bloomberg there are 600 tankers
In 2022, operators linked to Russia are sus- in the fleet, in an article published on February 3.
pected to have purchased as many as 29 super- Of these, about 400 tankers can carry crude,
tankers, known as VLCCs, very large crude or 20% of the global fleet, and have “switched”
carriers – each capable of carrying more than from mainstream trade to “ostensibly do Russian
2mn barrels – Braemar told the International business,” co-head of oil trading at Trafigura Ben
Energy Agency (IEA) in a presentation last Luckock said in an interview on Bloomberg Tel-
month. The country is likely to have also added evision. For oil product tankers, the company
31 Suezmax-sized tankers capable of carrying sees the level at 200 tankers, or 7% of the world
about 1mn barrels each, and 49 Aframax tankers total.
that can each haul about 700,000 barrels, the FT “You had the old days of Iran and Venezuela,
added. Many of these deals are being done by the and there was a shadow fleet that was relatively
state-owned VTB Bank, which was building up a small – it would manage the sanctioned barrels,”
tanker fleet even before the war started. Luckock said. “This Russian flow is vastly differ-
Russia makes the most use of Suezmax and ent – it’s huge.”
Aframax tankers, with about 100 vessels in the Luckock said that one of factors that is driving
Sovcomflot fleet, the state-owned Soviet-era these changes is that Russia is offering very hefty
shipping giant, before the war started. Adding premiums to tanker companies that are report-
VLCCs is clearly designed to facilitate ship-to- edly 50% to 100% more than normal rates for
ship transfers, as none of Russia’s oil ports can crude shipments. Luckock said the premium on
accommodate them as they are too big. The clean tanker rates could be as high as 400%. The
number of VLCC steaming between Russia and latest data from the Baltic Exchange in London
Asia has suddenly jumped in recent months, shows clean product tankers rates have reached
according to reports. $55,857 per day, surging 58% in a single day at
Another tanker specialist Splash did a similar the start of February, he added.
investigation, published on February 23, follow- London-based EA Gibson Shipbrokers has
ing an extensive, detailed analysis of the global counted at least 38 fuel-hauling ships that are
merchant fleet. Splash found the shadow tanker owned by Russian registered companies but
fleet totalled 421 ships. For “dirty” tankers, which also another 100 fuel tankers have been sold to
carry crude,, this comprises 150 Aframaxes, 49 anonymous buyers outside the G7 or the Euro-
Suezmaxes and 104 VLCCs, while “clean” tank- pean Union since the invasion of Ukraine a year
ers, which can carry oil productions, Splash ago – enough to carry all Russia’s oil products in
counted five handies, 17 LR1s, three LR2s, and addition to its crude exports. ™

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 09 02•March•2023