Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 15 2022
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FSUOGM                                        COMMENTARY                                            FSUOGM



































                         countries of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland  the crude is important, as a low sulphur content
                         and Italy receiving the next 30%. German refin-  means a fuel that produces less GHG emissions.
                         eries in particular are heavily dependent on
                         Russian crude and directly connected to Russian  German refineries
                         oilfields via the Druzhba pipelines.    Oil consumption is still Germany’s most impor-
                           China is the world's top importer of Russian  tant primary energy source, although it has been
                         crude oil, accounting for a third of all Russia’s  chipping away at this by actively developing
                         exports of crude and buying an average of 1.6mn  renewables. Oil covered 31.8% of the country’s
                         barrels per day (bpd) last year, or 15.5% of Chi-  primary energy use in 2021, mostly as transpor-
                         na’s total oil imports, according to the General  tation fuel.
                         Administration of Customs (GAC).       According to the Federal Institute for Geo-
                           Russia’s exports of refined oil products are  sciences and Natural Resources (BGR), about
                         much more diversified than crude. Russia  98% of Germany’s primary mineral oil con-
                         exported $48bn worth of refined products in  sumption had to be imported in 2020. The coun-
                         2020 with the Netherlands, France, Turkey and  try’s domestic crude oil output from 49 oilfields
                         Germany being the biggest customers. The US  amounted to 1.9mn tonnes that year.
                         also imported $4bn worth of refined products   In 2021, Germany imported 81mn tonnes of
                         that year, but has now banned the trade follow-  crude oil, with Russia by far the largest supplier,
                         ing the invasion of Ukraine.         delivering 34.1%. In total, 30 countries supplied
                           Disengaging from Russia oil exports is going  crude oil to Germany, with the US providing
                         to be hard for many countries that are heavily  12.5%, Kazakhstan 9.8% and Norway 9.6%.  
                         dependent on Russia for oil. Latvia depends on   Germany has started to diversify its oil sup-
                         Russia for 64% of its oil imports, with its two Bal-  ply, bringing the Russian share down to 25%
                         tic neighbours Lithuania and Estonia importing  from 35% in the first three months of this year.
                         45.6% and 43.6% respectively. Poland also relies  But weaning itself off Russian oil is made more
                         on Russia for more than half (54.9%) of its oil,  difficult, as several of Germany’s leading refin-
                         while another half dozen EU countries get  eries are connected by pipeline to their Russian
                         around a quarter or a third of their oil from Rus-  suppliers. Starting in the middle of April, the
                         sia, according to a survey of the 25 counties most  Leuna refinery in eastern Germany will process
                         dependent on Russian oil imports by 247wallst.  only half as much Russian oil as it has in past
                         com.                                 years, but it will have to rely on crude deliveries
                           And it’s not just a question of halting Rus-  by truck and rail from western Germany, rather
                         sian imports and switching to oil from Kuwait.  than the Russian pipeline system, the economy
                         Because the sulphur content in different oil  ministry said.
                         blends varies dramatically, changing supplier   The PCK refinery in the eastern German
                         can mean an expensive upgrade for most refiner-  town of Schwedt is also connected to the Russian
                         ies, which makes it harder to swap to a different  pipeline network, but stunningly the German
                         supplier. Most of Europe’s refineries are set up to  regulator allowed the Russian state-owned oil
                         cope with Russia’s Urals blend that has a noticea-  giant Rosneft to increase its stake in the refiner
                         ble sulphur content but can’t cope with the “sour”  to 92% the week before Russia invaded Ukraine.
                         oil from the Middle East and especially the “Arab  The German government is now wondering
                         Light” blend, Saudi Arabia’s main export, that  how to stop a Russian-owned refinery in Ger-
                         has a high sulphur content. The sweetness of  many buying Russian crude that is delivered via



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