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SECURITY & POLICY

Iran for first time involved

in major war on European
continent, conclude

US analysts

It is an extraordinary development, but accord-
ing to many analysts it is a simple fact: For the
first time, Iran is involved in a major war on the
European continent.
Backing the claim that Iranian military advi-
sors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolu-
tionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are on the ground
in occupied Ukraine—and possibly Belarus—to
help Russia deploy Iranian kamikaze drones “Relations later improved, with Russia pro- its attention from the Middle East, “ironically,
in strikes against Ukrainian cities and civilian viding assistance to Iran’s growing nuclear infra- Tehran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine
infrastructure, two analysts at the Washington, structure and missile programs in the 1990s. could prompt the West to pay more, not less,
DC-based Foundation for Defense of Democ- But Moscow also earned Iranian mistrust when attention to the Middle East, especially if Europe
racies also suggested that Iran is now preparing it waffled on major arms deals and assented to now embraces a tougher line toward Iran,” note
to up the ante by providing Russia not only with multiple United Nations Security Council reso- the analysts.
potentially thousands of additional drones but lutions sanctioning Iran over its growing nuclear Washington, they conclude, should work
also with two types of Iranian-made ballistic program. to ensure its Israeli and Arab allies, “who have
missiles. “Russo-Iranian relations have gained steam, for years lived on the front lines of the Iranian
With Iran’s drones—writes John Hardie, however, since Vladimir Putin’s 2012 return drone and missile threat, have the military capa-
deputy director of the Russia programme at to the Russian presidency—and particularly bilities and support they need to counter Iran’s
the Foundation, and Behnam Ben Taleblu, a since his 2015 military intervention in Syria to aggression.”
senior fellow at the Foundation, in a Foreign save their common ally, Syrian dictator Bashar bne/IntelliNews, November 3 2022
Policy piece headlined “Iran is Now at War with al-Assad. Although suspicion and competition
Ukraine” —having helped Russia redress battle- remain, both sides increasingly see their inter- Iran’s gas exports
field weaknesses hampering its eight-month war ests as intertwined, driven by shared opposition
against Ukraine and conserve some of its dwin- to the West. A formal alliance isn’t forthcoming, to Armenia to double
dling missile stock, Tehran looks set to provide but that won’t stop Russia and Iran—along with
Moscow not only with more Shahed-136 “loi- China—from deepening their entente.” Armenia signed a memorandum of understand-
tering munition” drones and other drones, but Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei con- ing on economic cooperation in the energy field
also Fateh-110 and Zulfiqar short-range ballis- tinues to move for stronger relations with Russia with Iran. During an Armenian delegation visit
tic missiles. These single-stage, solid-propellant, and China. to Tehran on November 1, Majid Chegeni, the
road-mobile ballistic missiles are, said the ana- With the Kremlin’s support, Iran last year deputy minister of oil for gas affairs and National
lysts, among the most precise in Iran’s ballistic obtained full membership in the Chinese- and Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) CEO and Min-
missile arsenal and the largest in the Middle East. Russian-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisa- ister of Territorial Administration and Infra-
“That Tehran and Moscow would coop- tion (SCO), while Tehran is also seeking mem- structures of Armenia Gnel Sanosyan signed
erate this closely in Ukraine caught many bership in the so-called BRICS group and is in the memorandum.
observers—including some leading Russian talks for a permanent free trade agreement with Chegeni said: “Based on this, according to
experts on Iran—by surprise,” observe Hardie the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (the the increase in the volume of exported gas. The
and Taleblu at the Foundation, a non-partisan EEU groups Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakh- electricity bartering rate will also be modified.”
group, but sometimes described as hawkish and stan and Kyrgyzstan). He further added: “Now we export one mil-
neoconservative. “Viewed in this context, a deal to supply Rus- lion cubic metres of gas to Armenia on a daily
They add: “Despite their recent alignment, sia with drones, missiles, and military advisors basis, which will be doubled based on the new
Iran and Russia have a long history of enmity makes strategic sense for Iran and can demon- memorandum.”
and mistrust going back to the tsarist era, includ- strate the latter’s value to one of its two senior The two countries thus extend the “gas for
ing a series of Russo-Persian wars and frequent partners in the anti-Western entente,” add Har- electricity” deal until 2030. Armenian Prime
Russian meddling in Persian politics. During the die and Taleblu. Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrived in Tehran on
Cold War, their relations were tense when Iran Turning to the question of what, militarily, November 1 at the official invitation of President
was led by the U.S.-allied shah and still worse Iran may receive in return, the analysts suggest Ebrahim Raeisi, at the head of a high-ranking
after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Iran’s new advanced Russian fighter aircraft or the S-400 air delegation of political and economic officials,
regime dubbed the Soviet Union a ‘Satan’ along- defence system, which Moscow has previously and was officially welcomed by the Iranian pres-
side the United States and backed the Afghan declined to sell to Tehran, could now be offered. ident at the presidential compound.
mujahideen against the Soviets, just as Moscow While by fueling the crisis in Ukraine, Iran In 2004 Tehran and Yerevan signed a 20-year
aided Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq War. likely hopes to lead the US to continue diverting gas-for-electricity barter agreement.

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