Page 46 - Farm and Food Policy Strategies for 2040 Series

protein (all nine amino acids) as well. Like grains, they have the highest level of protein when
mature (in roasted beans versus green edamame, for example).

Mitts off my animal protein, please

Looking broadly across the spectrum of protein-laden animal products, bet on robust growth in
production and consumption in both the U.S. and worldwide, though diverse and often sporadic
in select regions, owing to economic conditions.

In the U.S., overall 2018 consumption and production of total red meat and poultry “was at
an all-time high,” notes Matt Ball, a spokesman for the Good Foods Institute, which promotes
investment, research and development of plant-based protein foods and cell-based meats. “The
average American ate more meat last year than at any time before ... and will eat more in 2019,
and the same is true for global consumption,” he said. (For fish and shellfish, meanwhile, U.S.
per capita consumption has remained around 15 pounds for several years.)

GFI, though devoted to advancing plant-based meat
alternatives, assumes “people still want to eat meat,
people are still buying more and more meat,” Ball said.
“We don’t think people are going to ... start cutting way,
way back on meat. The evidence is all to the contrary.”

Humans evolved with a natural penchant for “eating

meat, (desiring) concentrated sources of amino acids
and fats” Ball says, and “aren’t going to live on bean
and greens instead of the meat and dairy products that
they like to eat.”

Experts writing a global food supply outlook report in

Caroline Sluyter, Whole Grains Council 2013 for the Council for Agricultural Science and
Technology focused on “challenges and opportunities in

sustaining animal agriculture” to 2050, and they took a similar view of the vital role that protein-

dense animal products must play in the decades ahead.

CAST notes the Earth’s 48 least-developed countries are expected to have a virtual stampede in

population growth, 2.5% a year. Per capita incomes in China, India and many developing
countries “are predicted to increase until they reach levels similar to those enjoyed by residents
of developed regions by 2050,” the report says.

“A positive correlation exists,” CAST points out, “between per capita income and demand for

animal source foods (milk, meat, and eggs) ... (and) livestock production will have to

substantially increase over the next 40 years to supply global demand. The importance of animal-
source foods ... in maintaining health and nutrient supply is well recognized.”

Slower market growth may loom

But not so fast. In its annual 10-year world agriculture outlook report through 2027, meanwhile,
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) project recent decades of strong demand growth in agriculture
will falter in some regions.

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