Page 47 - Farm and Food Policy Strategies for 2040 Series

Says OECD-FAO: “per capita consumption of many commodities is expected to be flat at a global level.
This is not only expected for staple foods such as cereals and roots and tubers, where consumption
levels are close to saturation levels ... but also for meat. Some low-income regions which currently have
low per capita consumption levels of meat, such as sub-Saharan Africa, are not expected to increase
these levels significantly due to a lack of sufficient income growth.” Some emerging economies, such as
China, have already boosted their incomes and meat consumption. And in India, demand for dairy
products, but not meat, will expand, says the report.

But all is not dismal. Although OECD/FAO expects per capita consumption of meat and fish to
edge up just 3% (and just 0.3% in the developing countries) through the decade, total
consumption is expected to increase 15%, owing to rising populations, although “with stark
variations across regions.”

For example, though sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita use will slip by 3%, total use will jump by
28%, owing to the region’s annual population growth, reaching 32 million people in the year
2027.

The OECD/FAO report also points out that when animal agriculture expands, so does demand
for feed, which “will continue to outpace food demand as livestock production intensifies. While
demand for corn will keep rising, the report projects, “demand for protein meal is expected to
expand by 23%, considerably faster than the other commodities used as feed.” Much of the
higher demand will come from China, OECD/FAO expects.

Trade snags threatening protein markets

“Agricultural trade plays an important role in ensuring food security,” OECD/FAO says. But
reduced economic growth in some regions will already throttle back agricultural trade worldwide
to “about half the rate of the previous decade,” the report says, which underscores “the need for
an enabling trade policy environment.”

However, says OECD/FAO, “there are increasing
uncertainties with respect to agricultural trade policies
and concerns about the possibility of rising protectionism
globally.”

Such an outlook may spell trouble, for example, for the
world’s top exporters of pork (the U.S., European Union,
Brazil, and Canada). In the U.S., producers fill all domestic
orders and then need to sell much of their production abroad
to survive economically.

Brett Kaysen, an assistant vice president for the National Pork
Board, notes, “for the last 20 years, per capita consumption in
America of pork has been around that 50 (pounds) mark,
holding steady.” Pork producers’ engine of economic growth Brett Kaysen, National Pork Board
is “our export market, and I can’t emphasize enough how important those foreign markets are to
us ... (the meat from) one out of every four hogs produced in this country are exported,” he says.

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