Page 21 - SA Chamber UK MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - March 2024

OPINION
THE WORLD AND SOUTH

AFRICA BEYOND 2024

By Clem Sunter

An update on the flags, scenarios and probabilities

Given the deep uncertainty of the times we

are living in, let me start by briefly describing
the methodology I recommend that you
should use to plot a way forward. The first
step is to identify the flags that are driving
change in the world around you. There are

cloudy flags with highly uncertain futures
ahead of them and clockwork flags ticking
away with a more precise impact.

The second step is to look at the possible

consequences of the flags by playing
different scenarios that could flow out of
them. Where possible, you should attach

intuitive probabilities to the scenarios based
on the current status of the flags.

The third step is to be continually on the alert
for new evidence which may require you to

adjust your portfolio of flags, and perhaps
change the narrative of the scenarios and
amend their probabilities. Being a foxy futurist
is a dynamic game where you recognise that

threats and opportunities can come out of
the blue which demand a swift re-think of
the picture you have of the future and the
appropriate strategy and tactics to handle it.

There are two things you should try to avoid at all costs. Do not let emotion get in the way
of the facts. In that sense, the flags can be seen as a way of piercing the veil that we all have
when we look at the future. The second thing is to avoid being too precise in your predictions.
In the words of Pierre Wack, the greatest scenario planner of all time, it is much better to be

vaguely right than precisely wrong.

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SA CHAMBER UK NEWSLETTER MARCH 2024