Page 24 - SA Chamber UK MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - March 2024

of their politicians the most. Whether it is the southern border of the United States
where vast fences are being built to discourage people crossing the Rio Grande, or the

English Channel where the UK government is proposing to relocate many of the people
who arrive in small boats to Rwanda, the issue is a front-page story virtually every day. It
is a cloudy flag because climate change could boost the numbers trying to migrate in
order to stay alive into the billions. What happens then?

8. The national debt flag has been soaring around the world as a result of easy money
policies since the financial crash of 2008 and due to the mitigation measures taken by
governments to ease people’s lives during the pandemic. For example, the national debt

right now in the US is about $34 trillion compared to a national GDP figure of $27 trillion,
namely a ratio of 125%. In the last century, it was considered a priority to keep that ratio
below 60% and indeed America did just that. Now it is more than double that recognized

ceiling. In addition, annual interest rates have risen from virtually zero in the 2010s to
5% today, and the US government is running a sizeable annual budget deficit which only
exacerbates the problem. Meanwhile, the US stock markets are at record levels. Hence,

a day of reckoning, like what happened when sub-prime mortgages fell out of bed in
2008, may be around the corner.

9. The pandemic flag has not gone away. Covid is now called flu and thankfully the

latest variants are relatively mild. However, the flag must remain on the radar

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SA CHAMBER UK NEWSLETTER MARCH 2024