Page 23 - SA Chamber UK MONTHLY NEWSLETTER - March 2024

unfortunately remains terribly cloudy because we do not as yet have any clue as to
who the next leaders in the world will be and whether they will get along with one

another. Trump possibly replacing Biden as the next US President – providing he can
dodge all the legal cases against him – will not help matters at all.

3. The red flag of Russia, China and North Korea. There has been no let-up in the war in

Ukraine and it still has the potential to metamorphose into a much bigger confrontation
between Russia and America. Taiwan’s newly-elected leader supports independence
from China, so tensions will continue to be sky-high around the future status of the

island. North Korea meanwhile continues with its ballistic missile tests and incendiary
rhetoric against South Korea. All three locations involved in this cloudy flag therefore
need to be watched closely because of the massive impact they might have on the

future of the territories adjacent to them.

4. The grey flag of the ageing of the populations in certain important parts of the world, like
Japan, Europe, the UK and now China, is having a profound effect on the world economy.

We are moving into a two-speed world where America with its younger and more resilient
population is experiencing a strong economic recovery from the recent pandemic, while
the greying nations are stuck in a rut of low economic growth. Developing countries with

younger populations will also do better but only if they are demonstrating good
governance. This clockwork flag will continue to tick away in the future and should be
considered as an important factor in deciding where to invest money overseas for
decent returns.

5. The green flag of climate change has clockwork and cloudy characteristics. On the
one hand, we are seeing in many places like California a greater frequency of flooding
caused by atmospheric rivers. Clouds simply hold more moisture on account of their

extra warmth, which is entirely predictable. On the other hand, nobody really knows
how quickly life on this planet will be transformed in the remainder of this century. The
annual climate change summits have yet to produce concrete action which will slow the

temperature rise. Insurance companies are beginning to refuse to offer cover on houses
and contents in certain areas prone to flooding.

6. The anti-establishment flag is waving high in many countries because many ordinary

citizens are frustrated by their living standards declining at the same time as the super-
rich are doubling their wealth every few years. Fanned by social media, their anger is
contributing towards the growth of extremist movements and political parties dedicated

to upsetting the existing social order. It is a cloudy flag because we could see some very
surprising changes to the way democracy operates in the future.

7. The porous border flag of an increasing number of undocumented immigrants

managing to enter wealthy countries is probably the flag which is exercising the minds

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SA CHAMBER UK NEWSLETTER MARCH 2024