Page 42 - EW August 2023

Expert Comment

International politics

of statistics

SANJAYA BARU

VERYONE HAS HEARD OF THAT POPULAR PUT India has a schizophrenic attitude
down of data — “lies, damned lies and statistics”.
Getting people to trust official data is more difficult towards international comparisons and
Ethan collecting data. In recent years, gaps in data indices. Indians at home and overseas
collection, partly on account of inadequate funding and
partly because of political interference, has generated are constantly looking for global
widespread distrust of statistics produced by government approval and get prickly when it doesn't
agencies. The Union government’s decision to postpone the
decennial census has further contributed to the view that go their way
the government doesn’t want to gather data that may not
serve its political purposes. During prime minister Narendra Modi’s first-term in
The recent decision of the Union government to suspend office, the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business (EoDB)
K.S. James, director of the International Institute for index became a hot topic because it showed a dramatic
Population Sciences, because of his skepticism about data improvement in India’s rank. When the report was
relating to National Family Health Surveys, raises serious published in 2017, the Union government organised a
questions about the value the Modi government attaches to celebratory event in New Delhi, inviting the World Bank’s
professionalism and due process. Hungarian CEO Kristalina Georgieva. At the event, Modi
Economist Sonalde Desai has been at the forefront in praised Ms Georgieva sky-high even as leaders of Indian
commenting on the data controversy. In an essay (Sunday business were in full attendance. No one questioned how
Times of India, July 30), she has made a plea for rebuilding this dramatic improvement had been constructed.
India’s statistical system. Earlier, she had commented on y 2021, Ms Georgieva got caught in a EoDB scandal
the government’s response to the Global Hunger Index Bwhen an internal enquiry revealed senior World Bank
observing that it draws attention to the difficulties of officials had tweaked numbers to favour China and Saudi
constructing such indices and diverts attention from Arabia. Many in the bank and in India felt that numbers had
substantial arguments relating to statistics, their collection, been manipulated in India’s favour as well. The PM’s high
and construction of indices. But the lay public is not praise for Georgieva strengthened this sentiment.
interested in substantial arguments and only remembers Whatever the facts, despite the ignominy of the scandal,
numbers and country ranking. Georgieva not only retained her job but, before the scam
There was a time when the general public paid broke out, she was promoted to the office of Managing
little attention to studies coming out of international Director of the International Monetary Fund. Cynics in
organisations. In 1990, Nobel economist Amartya Sen, Washington DC said the combined weight of China, India
London School of Economics professor Meghnad Desai and Saudi Arabia tilted the decision in her favour.
and former finance minister of Pakistan, Mahbub ul Haq, Even though China doesn’t give a damn about World
constructed the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Bank and IMF data, India has a schizophrenic attitude
United Nations published a Human Development Report towards such international comparisons and indices. Both
based on the index. It successfully measures country at home and overseas, Indians are constantly looking for
performance not just on gross domestic product (GDP) but global approval and get very prickly when it doesn’t go
also on other parameters including education and health. their way. Desperation for approval and anger against
Since then, there has not only been a proliferation of international disapproval have markedly increased in the
such reports coming out of various United Nations agencies past decade.
but also several global non-governmental organisations. Prime minister Modi’s mega gatherings in the United
However, again these reports didn’t attract much attention States, in New York and Houston, at which several US
because governments of the day were not seeking global politicians were in attendance and President Donald Trump
approval or were irritated by disapproval. But we are now walked hand in hand with him, excited his supporters’ base.
into achche din, and any sachchi baat coming from outside But when US politicians criticised India’s human rights
either excites the establishment or makes it angry. record, religious bigotry and so on, hell broke loose.
As for the HDI, the big issue in early years was India’s The Hunger Index was flawed and got rejected and
relative ranking compared with neighbouring countries. buried quickly. That, however, doesn’t mean that all such
Although Dr. Haq was Pakistani, he was a scholar at efforts at quantifying reality are flawed and that all statistics
Cambridge University, UK, and knew Amartya Sen and are lies.
Manmohan Singh well. Therefore, no one accused him of (Sanjaya Baru is former editor of Business Standard, media advisor to the
any anti-India bias, even though India had a low rank. Most prime minister and author of The Accidental Prime Minister and 1991:
were satisfied that India’s rank was above Pakistan’s. How P.V. Narasimha Rao Made History)

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