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needs full energy system thinking and   However, because competitive carbon   infrastructure, thereby reducing costs
                 greater awareness of the tight timeline   pricing in heavily industrialised   and lead times.
                 and interdependencies of technologies   countries such as China and India is not
                 and policies. It critically requires the   forecast to occur before 2035, we expect   TRANSPORTING GREEN GASES
                 courage to make difficult decisions.  a more limited scale-up compared with   DNV’s 2020 Energy Transition Outlook
                   The recently released Technology   the long-term International Energy   forecasts that by mid-century around
                 Progress Report, a new supplement   Agency scenario .             half of the energy mix will still be
                                                              2
                 to DNV’s annual Energy Transition   Mature carbon capture technology   made up of hydrocarbons. Therefore,
                 Outlook, has highlighted how ten key   exists for nearly all industries, but in   pipelines will remain critically
                 energy transition technologies are   recent years the focus has shifted away   important for transporting molecular
                 expected to develop, compete, and   from the fossil fuel power generation   energy from the point of production or
                 interact over the next five years if   sector to major industries like cement,   storage to the point of consumption.
                 global economies are to meet emissions   steel, refining, hydrogen and ammonia.  Increasing capacity by repurposing
                 reduction targets.                                                existing infrastructure for gases such
                   The technologies that have the                                  as hydrogen and CO₂, rather than
                 potential to deeply decarbonise the   Building CO₂ transport hubs   constructing new pipelines, can reduce
                 world’s energy system are well known.   in industrialised areas with   both project risk and commercial
                 They are those that can help to scale   access to storage sites under   burden. However, these projects are
                 renewable power generation and extend   development – such as those   mainly at the pilot stage. Larger-scale
                 its reach through the electrification of                          deployment of hydrogen and CCS is
                 new sectors, replacing natural gas with   in the Netherlands, Norway,   likely to require linking production and
                 hydrogen and which can remove carbon   UK and Italy, will speed   carbon capture utilisation and storage
                 from fossil fuel energy sources, before   large-scale uptake of CCS by   (CCUS). This will be through hubs and
                 or at the point of combustion.                                    purpose-built ‘backbone’ pipelines to
                   The real challenge lies in navigating   allowing industrial clusters to   connect facilities such as steelworks,
                 how and when to implement these   share transport and storage     chemical plants and power stations,
                 technologies – all of which are at   infrastructure, thereby      that previously would not have had any
                 different stages of maturity – and in   reducing costs and lead times  reason for being partnered. In addition,
                 managing how they interact and rely on                            many inland facilities will need to be
                 one another. Understanding this will                              coupled to coastal hubs for hydrogen
                 enable industry, governments and those   Costs vary greatly across industries   supply or CO₂ export.
                                                                                                     4
                 financing the transition to effectively   from $15 to $125 per ton of CO₂, but   According to forecasts , CCUS
                 prioritise their efforts, to achieve the   these are expected to fall . The largest   demand in 2050 will be roughly 100
                                                                     3
                 emissions reductions required every   savings will likely come from come from   times larger than the collective capacity
                 year through to 2050.            the replication of projects and economy   of the roughly 6,500km of CO₂ pipelines
                                                  of scale, process improvements,   that exist today.
                 CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE       and increased competition between   Research is underway to determine
                 Governments are implementing     technology providers. Widespread   how new low carbon gas pipelines
                 more effective climate policies and   deployment of the technology is   and existing pipeline materials will
                 shareholders are pressuring companies   paramount to significantly cut costs,   perform in hydrogen and CO₂ service
                 to reduce their emissions. There   where higher carbon prices will further   and potentially at different operating
                 has been a significant increase in   strengthen uptake.           temperatures and pressures.
                 commercial carbon capture and storage   Connecting CO₂ sources to   Transporting CO₂ by pipeline links
                 (CCS) project announcements and   permanent geological storage sites   the process activities for capturing CO₂
                 investment, especially in industrial   is an essential part of the CCS chain.   at an emitter facility (e.g., power station,
                 sectors that have limited near-future   Today, CO₂ is primarily transported   steel manufacturer, refinery) with
                 technology alternatives for abating large   through pipelines, but transport   the activities needed to inject it deep
                 CO₂ emissions, such as oil and gas, steel,   by ship and truck is also an option.   underground for permanent geological
                 cement, and waste-to-energy. In 2020,   Studies have already identified many   storage. Critical issues are as follows:
                 there were 26 commercial scale CCS   suitable and safe sites to store CO₂      Impurities in captured CO₂ affect
                 facilities in operation across the globe   across the world. However, sites must   the phase behavior and have a
                                        1
                 capturing just under 40 Mt CO₂ .   also be close to capture plants and   significant impact on pipeline design
                   Large-scale implementation of   identification, assessment and approval   parameters. The current demand
                 CCS technologies is a necessary part   of storage sites can take up to ten years.   for rapid growth in CCS to support
                 of reaching the Paris Agreement   Therefore, short-term development of   deep decarbonisation of industry
                 climate targets. Although CCS has long   CCS infrastructure will mainly occur   will result in CO₂ being captured
                 been considered an immature and   in locations that already have tailored   from a much wider range of emission
                 risky distraction from other ‘better’   regulations, i.e., Northern Europe,   sources, with a much broader range
                 decarbonisation routes, today we see a   North America and Australia.   of contaminants than previously
                 renewed interest in this technology as it   Building CO₂ transport hubs in   encountered.
                 becomes an effective a tool for achieving   industrialised areas with access to      Pipeline capacity and size also
                 net negative emissions and transitioning   storage sites under development – such   needs careful consideration. It is
                 to a net zero emissions future.  as those in the Netherlands, Norway,   tempting to design the pipeline for
                   CCS is expected to scale substantially   UK and Italy, will speed large-scale   the maximum flow capacity that
                 over the next three decades thanks to   uptake of CCS by allowing industrial   could be needed, but oversizing the
                 the carbon price increase in Europe.   clusters to share transport and storage   pipeline carries significant risks



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        GreenGases.indd   2                                                                                       15/07/2021   13:00
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