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The heat revolution will not happen overnight

installations which fall outside of
this bracket simply be £5,000 more
expensive?
Furthermore, a market mechanism
proposal within the strategy is suggesting
that boiler manufacturers must sell
a quota of heat pumps as well as, or
perhaps instead of, boilers. One of the
sales figures targets we have seen stated
that the total amount of heat pumps sold
this way starts at 30,000 installations
annually from 2024, increasing to
210,000 in 2028, all of which appear to
sit outside, or in addition to, the £5,000
boiler upgrade grant.
This means that boiler manufacturers
will need to sell more units than the
grant-assisted units at a price which is
£5,000 more expensive. This is a highly
ambitious, if not impossible, target to
achieve.

OUT OF OUR CONTROL
Moreover, it appears that the Heat
and Buildings Strategy expresses the
ambition to see 600,000 heat pumps
being installed annually by 2028, but
with no proposed policy or legislation THE GOVERNMENT EXPECTS 600,000 HEAT PUMPS
in place for existing homes, this TO BE INSTALLED ANNUALLY BY 2028
responsibility appears to have been
passed over to boiler manufacturers. states that it sees the bulk of the 25 to pump when current Ofgem and MCS
The heat pump itself is at best 50 50 per cent cost reduction coming from requirements lead to an EPC evaluation
per cent of the total cost; it is the installation costs, not the heat pump. and mandatory insulation upgrades
installation costs, remedial work, and How, I ask, is this possible? before the heat pump is installed?
components needed to upgrade the The components and sundries, such This would mean asking the
heating system and home which see as radiators, pipework, and fittings, are homeowner to live without heating or
prices grow most significantly and most produced in hundreds of millions, and hot water until their home is fit for heat
commonly for homeowners. are already very cost competitive. pump installation, a process which
How are boiler manufacturers On top of this, heat pump could take months. People just won’t
expected to sell their quota of heat installation is more labour intensive accept that.
pumps to meet the market mechanism than a boiler replacement, and many
targets without grant funding creating a properties will need to install a hot INSTALLER-CENTRIC
market demand or legislation, or policy water storage cylinder where there Even if such a feat of persuasion was
changes making it happen? presently may not be one or even the possible, we must reiterate that the
It is clear the market for heat space to locate one. It is possible that homeowner is not the customer of the
pumps has remained relatively low, many homes will also need changes to manufacturer, but of the installer.
with not much organic growth taking the radiators and pipework. Despite responsibility being placed
place over several years, even though What about installation? The average with manufacturers, it is the installer
most boiler manufacturers have boiler replacement takes one, perhaps who decides the specification of the
offered them for some time. two days. In comparison, a heat pump heating appliance at least 70 per cent of
If, after several years of trying to installation could be two or three times the time, even more so in winter.
increase sales, with assistance from longer, depending on the amount of And the likelihood of an installer
incentives such as the Green Deal and work needed to get the house and the being willing to install a heat pump at
Renewable Heat Incentive, there has heating system at optimal performance. the same price as a boiler by the end of
been no significant rise, what makes How can government conclude that the decade is, at best, unrealistic.
the government believe that this will heat pump installation costs will reach Overall, government ought to
change under the market mechanism parity with a boiler by 2030 when the reconsider how a heat pump price drop
with no incentives proposed to create job itself takes this much longer? might be possible to achieve uptake
the market? targets, because those currently in
MARKET MECHANISM CHAOS place will not be effective in achieving
HIGHER COSTS It is also important to remember that decarbonisation targets.
As mentioned, a main barrier to heat most boiler installations, particularly
pump installation price parity with in Q1 and Q4, are unplanned, distress Worcester Bosch, originally founded
boilers is the cost of installation, installations. in 1962, is the UK market leader in
remedial work, and the components to Therefore, how will manufacturers domestic boilers. For more information,
upgrade the system. Despite this, BEIS convince a homeowner to opt for a heat visit www.worcester-bosch.co.uk

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