Page 40 - Gi March 2019 - Flipbook

igem news – yppc

TABLE 2 CRITICALITY MODEL FOR MAINS AND SERVICES

FIGURE 2 LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE OF POLYETHYLENE PIPE FIGURE 3 LEAKAGE RATE OF POLYETHYLENE PIPE ON POWERCO NETWORK

result in a reduction of leakage on our
network; as yet, it is currently too early FIGURE 4 RISK MODEL OF POLYETHYLENE PIPE INSTALLED PRIOR TO 1985
to quantify the impact of these models.

Future
In the past, our planned projects have
been almost entirely driven by pockets of
large defects in our network, led by field
observations as opposed to data and
analysis. These somewhat reactively-
driven planned projects are becoming
fewer. Consequently, there is greater
budget for targeted renewals to reduce
likelihood of failure in the future, even if
the asset being replaced hasn’t failed in
the past. We will be using this risk model
to prioritise these preventative projects
to efficiently reduce risk.
Our assets are also approaching their
economical end of life. If Powerco were
to replace assets at this defined end-of-
life date we would need to be replacing
mains at over 20 times our current rate
of renewals. It is not feasible to increase
our rates of renewal to directly meet this
curve. My new risk model will help define addition to Powerco’s existing risk network safer and more reliable.
which asset renewals we should defer or management processes. Early signs My project shows the potential
bring forward based on the risk score of are that this model will be beneficial benefits that the gas industry can make
the assets. This distributes the renewal to Powerco’s gas distribution business, by learning from other industries.
profile to make it more deliverable. initially helping speed up and Innovation doesn’t have to be ground-
standardise our project prioritisation. breaking to be beneficial, it is more
Conclusions In the long term, we expect to see this efficient to use a proven concept and
The use of actuarial methods to model efficient expenditure result in a decrease apply it to a new situation than to
asset risk looks to be a very promising in leakages, therefore making Powerco’s attempt to reinvent the wheel.

40

IGEMNews_YPPC.indd 3 14/02/2019 14:27