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Thursday 20 OcTOber 2022 locAl
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            Buoyant tourism bolsters Aruban economy in the second quarter of 2022



            Today,  the  Centrale  Bank  year.  Most  consumption-
            van Aruba (CBA) published  related     indicators   were
            the  State  of  the  Economy  positive, pointing to a rise in
            report for the second quar-  consumption. Two of these
            ter of 2022. The publication  indicators,  being  turnover
            contains  national,  as  well  taxes  (+33.1  percent)  and
            as  international  economic  commodity  taxes  (+21.0
            developments.  The  high-    percent), soared  due  to a
            lights of this publication are  combination of the elevat-
            presented below.             ed  level  of  tourism  activity
                                         and an uptick in domestic
            In  the  second  quarter  of  consumption (Chart 1). The
            2022, the economy of Aru-    increase  in  consumption
            ba continued on a growth  was  noticeable  in  Aruba’s
            track  compared  to  the  trade  deficit,  which  wid-
            same  period  in  2021.  The  ened  by  Afl.  263.5  million,
            5.7  percent  growth  in  real  resulting  from  the  surge  in
            GDP derived from the last-   import  (+31.3  percent)  on
            ing  positive  momentum  account also of higher im-
            in  Aruba’s  tourism  sector.  port prices.
            Measured indicators for in-
            vestment and consumption  Furthermore,    investment
            demonstrated  an  increase  indicators  largely  showed
            in economic activity.        improvement compared to
                                         the first half of 2021. Among   period inflation was primar-  International  transactions  external debt in 2022. Con-
            This  persistent recovery was  these  indicators,  the  value   ily  attributed  to  gasoline  settled  through  the  bank-  sequently, the level of inter-
            connected  to  an  increase  of  imported  base  metals   prices  (+2.9  percentage  ing sector resulted in a sig-  national reserves remained
            in  stay-over  visitors  and  and  derivated  works  grew   points) and food and non-  nificant net inflow of foreign  adequate and well above
            nights,  which  boosted  ho-  by a notable 39.3 percent   alcoholic  beverages  (+1.2  exchange of Afl. 402.7 mil-  the benchmarks monitored
            tel  operations  (Table  1).  In  in the first half of 2022 (2021   percentage  points).  Addi-  lion pushing the level of in-  by the CBA.
            the first half of 2022, Aruba  Jan-Jun: -9.8 percent), while   tionally,  the  end-of-period  ternational  reserves  to  Afl.
            saw a 61.9 percent climb in  the value of imported ma-    core  inflation,  which  ex-  3,286.8  million  (  incl.  gold  In  the  first  half  of  2022,
            stay-over visitors compared  chinery and electrotechni-   cludes  food  and  energy,  and  excl.  revaluation  dif-  based  on  available  infor-
            to the first half of 2021, and  cal  equipment  surged  by   totaled  2.0  percent  com-  ferences)  (Chart  2).  Both  mation, the Government of
            reached  91.8  percent  of  23.6 percent (2021 Jan-Jun:   pared  to  -0.4  percent  in  the  current  and  financial  Aruba’s (GoA) fiscal deficit
            2019  pre-COVID-level.  A  +6.2 percent). Additionally,   June of 2021. The 12-month  accounts  of  the  balance  dropped  to  Afl.  16.8  mil-
            surge  in  U.S.  arrivals  (+46.5  in the first half of 2022, new   average   inflation   rate  of  payments  contributed  lion,  Afl.  313.3  million  less
            percent)  fueled  the  high  commercial  and  housing     reached 3.4 percent at the  to  this  outcome,  record-   than in the same period of
            number  of  stay-over  vis-  mortgages  demonstrated      end of June 2022, continu-   ing  net  foreign  exchange  2021.  This  contraction  was
            its,  along  with  growth  in  expansions  in  both  value   ing its upward path. None-  inflows of, respectively, Afl.  due  to  a  decline  in  gov-
            all  markets.  The  increased  and number compared to     theless, the real exchange  315.0  million  and  Afl.  107.4  ernment expenditures (-Afl.
            tourism  demand  caused  the first half of 2021.          rate  for  the  Aruban  flo-  million.  The  significant  rise  161.6  million)  and  a  robust
            a  rise  in  occupied  room                               rin  vis-à-vis  the  U.S.  dollar  in  international  reserves  increase  in  government
            nights (+63.1 percent) and  In  line  with  international   trended  downwards  dur-   stemmed  from  a  net  in-   revenues  (+Afl.  151.2  mil-
            other  hotel  sector  indica-  price  developments,  the   ing the first half of 2022. This  flow  of  tourism  revenues  lion).  Despite  the  revenue
            tors.  Aside  from  stay-over  consumer price index (CPI)   downward trend is a result  registered  at  commercial  growth noted in the first half
            visitors,  cruise  visitors  also  remained  on  its  upward   of  consumer  prices  in  the  banks and government for-  of 2022, it remained below
            contributed  to  the  recov-  trend  reaching  103.3  in   United  States  rising  faster  eign  borrowing  via  a  loan  the 2019-level (90.3 percent
            ery, registering a growth of  June  of  2022.  The  5.3  per-  than those in Aruba.    agreement  with  the  Neth-  of  2019  figures),  indicating
            16,481.0  percent  year-on-  cent  climb  in  the  end-of-                             erlands to finance maturing  that  there  is  still  a  gap  to
                                                                                                                                bridge before reaching full
                                                                                                                                recovery.

                                                                                                                                In  June  2022,  government
                                                                                                                                debt  reached  Afl.  5,969.0
                                                                                                                                million, up from Afl. 5,655.6
                                                                                                                                million  in  December  2021.
                                                                                                                                An  expansion  of  Afl.  243.5
                                                                                                                                million  in  foreign  debt
                                                                                                                                caused  this  higher  debt
                                                                                                                                stock.  The  debt-to-GDP
                                                                                                                                ratio increased by 0.6 per-
                                                                                                                                centage  point  and  stood
                                                                                                                                at  101.7  percent  in  June
                                                                                                                                2022 compared to the end
                                                                                                                                of 2021.

                                                                                                                                The  complete  publication
                                                                                                                                is  available  on  the  CBA's
                                                                                                                                website.     (https://www.
                                                                                                                                cbaruba.org/document/
                                                                                                                                state-of-the-economy).q
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