Page 14 - CMB

A15
LOCAL Thursday 4 January 2018

Centrale Bank van Aruba Releases Economic Forecast Monitor

ORANJESTAD – Recently the ed States. The tourism sec- American economies are
Centrale Bank van Aruba tor will remain the engine of mixed. Forecasted2018
(CBA) published an update growth with a forecasted real GDP-growth for the
of the Economic Forecast 2.4% expansion in receipts continent as a whole de-
Monitor (EFM) on its web- and a 3.1% hike in the num- clined slightly to 2.2%.
site. The EFM provides an ber of arrivals. Countries with above aver-
overview of both local and Private consumption is pro- age growth expectations
global economic forecasts jected to expand by 2.8%, are Argentina, Colombia,
by different institutions. This while growth in private in- Chile and Peru. Economic
update also includes the vestment is estimated at developments in Venezue-
revised local forecasts ear- 10.7%on the condition that la will remain largely nega-
lier published in the CBA’s the expected increase in tive (−3.6%).
Economic Outlook. A sum- refinery activities will take The rate of inflation in Latin
mary of the forecasts is pre- place. America will likely be lower
sented below. After two years in the defla- than in 2017, typically in the
tionary territory, inflationary range from 2 to 4%with ex-
For 2018, economic out- pressures will rise to a mod- ceptions of Venezuela and
put is projected to expand est 0.3% in 2018.A further Argentina.
further, i.e. by 2.7% (in real decline in net foreign re- tively 1.9 and 8.6 percent) preciate to US$ 1.21 at the The Caribbean economies
terms), providing timely serves, currently estimated are more favorable com- end of 2018. are projected to grow by
refinery renovation invest- at Afl. 154 million, is expect- pared to six months ago. The view on GDP-devel- 3.1% with an average infla-
ments. Without these in- ed, largely due to sched- Especially the prospects of opments in the United tion rate of approximately
vestments, real GDP growth uled debt repayments. the Dutch economy are States remains virtually un- 4%.
is estimated at 1.0%.It will On the international front, currently high. changed at 2.4%. Oil prices are forecasted to
be the second year of eco- the current forecasting With 1.4%, price expecta- The projections on inflation increase to an average of
nomic expansion, after an trend indicates that finan- tions in the euro area are (2.0%) and unemployment US$ 54 per barrel in 2018. In
estimated 2.6% growth in cial institutions are more op- moderate, except in the (4.1%) are fractionally low- addition, the price of gold
2017. timistic with respect to the United Kingdom where in- er than six months ago. Dis- is expected to remain just
Likewise, a further increase economic developments flation is expected to beat posable personal income below the US$ 1,300 mark.
in tourism activities is fore- in the European countries. the 2 percent mark, gener- of the average U.S.-citizen The complete publication
casted, driven by a con- The 2018 outlook on both ally considered the desired will probably increase by is available on the CBA’s
tinuing growth in the num- real GDP-growth and un- rate of inflation. 2.3% in 2018. website (www.cbaruba.
ber of visitors from the Unit- employment rates (respec- The euro is estimated to ap- The assessments for Latin org).q