Page 31 - bon-dia-aruba-20200326

LOCAL Thursday 26 March 2020
A31

S&P Global Ratings:

Stress Scenario: The Sovereigns Most Vulnerable To a COVID-19-

Related Slowdown in Tourism

NEW YORK, US — Standard & Poor's (S&P) is a leading index provider and
data source of independent credit ratings. It is the provider of the popular
S&P 500 Index as well as several other global market indices. With the
following scenario analysis they give a general estimate of how a slow-
down in tourism--in isolation from other coronavirus effects-- might affect
the sovereigns we rate. The full article is to be read on: spglobal.com.

Key takeaways:
• COVID-19 will take a major toll on the world's largest tourism export-
ers.
• S&P has run 122 of their rated sovereigns through three scenarios-
-"limited", "extensive", and "extreme"--under which tourism receipts
decline by 11%, 19%, and 27% as per similar stresses modelled by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA).
• Despite the uncertainty, under their baseline expectation that this is
a one-year shock, most sovereign ratings would be resilient to a tem-
porary slide in tourism flows.
• Their scenario analysis suggests "Sun, Sea, and Sand"-focused island growth (excluding second-round effects).
economies in the Caribbean and elsewhere would be the most • Even larger more diversified exporters of tourism, such as Portugal,
heavily exposed to a uniform slowdown in global tourist footfall. Turkey, Spain, and Australia could see negative GDP contributions to
• The second heaviest-affected region globally would be the Balkans, tourism of between 0.9-2.5 ppts from full-year GDP growth under the
where even under the lower stress scenario, falling tourism arriv- extreme shock scenario, which is less unrealistic than a few weeks
als would shave 1.9-2.2 percentage points (ppts) off headline GDP ago in light of national quarantines and travel bans. q

Send us your positive message from home “My wife and I have been

coming to Aruba for the last
fifteen years, and we are very
ORANJESTAD — In these difficult times we would like “Aruba to me is the most wonderful place in the sad to learn that your won-
to reach out to our friends abroad who were sup- world. It is truly my island of love. We have visited 6 derful island is essentially shut
posed to spend their tropical vacation on Aruba or fabulous times and we were planning our seventh down.
who had to break up their vacation due to the CO- visit on May 16. We are so very saddened that we
VID-19 situation. Aruba Today invites you to send had to cancel our trip that we have so been looking We know how important tour-
us your picture and words expressing your memory forward to. We had started our countdown 220 days ism is to your One Happy Is-
of our island or your dream vacation for the future. ago. The only thing that makes this disappointment land, and we hope you can
You may also just say hello and show us how you slightly tolerable, but only slightly, is that we will re- find the strength and safety
feel because we are all in the same boat right now. book and visit your beautiful island in October. So to make it through this.
as we begin another long countdown to visit Aruba,
Send us your picture(s) together with completing we will keep our memories in our hearts and look for- Since you have always been
the sentence: Aruba to me is …….. (Email: news@ ward to creating more very soon! so warm and friendly to us, I’m
arubatoday.com). Please do note: By submitting sure those positive qualities
photos, text or any other materials, you give per- Aruba is the Best!” will help you all get through
mission to The Aruba Today newspaper, Caribbean Paula Hutchinson this.
Speed Printers and any of its affiliated companies
to use said materials, as well as names, likeness, etc. We plan on returning next
for promotional purposes without compensation. Well, we were
supposed to January - our trip is already
Take a look at the pictures we received from our leaving this Friday booked - and in the mean-
time all of us worldwide will
readers these last days. Thank you for sharing and for a week. We do what it takes to get to the
do keep them coming. are sooooo
disappointed! other side of the corona virus.

Last but not least: check out our website and Face- We’ll be back Masha danki,
book page! Thank you for supporting our free news- soon!
paper, we strive to make you a happy reader every Flip Brown & Sandy Post form
day again and look forward to have you here with John Goodey Burlington”
us soon again! Stay healthy and keep safe! q