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A28 u.s. news
Diamars 6 september 2022

Red wave crashing? GOP momentum slips as fall sprint begins

The former president helped
his loyalists, most of whom
embraced his conspiracy the-
ories about the 2020 election,
win primary elections across
the country throughout the
spring and summer. But it's
unclear how Trump will help
them, if at all, as the election
moves into the fall.

At the same time, a dispro-
portionate number of wom-
en are registering to vote.
And if recent voting patterns
hold, that's good news for
Democrats.

In at least seven states, wom-
en made up a higher share of
newly registered voters fol-
lowing the overturning of
Roe v. Wade, according to
an AP analysis of voter data
from L2, a nonpartisan data
provider.

In the five weeks after the
court eliminated the con-
stitutional right to abortion,
women made up 64% of new
Kansas registrations. Then,
on Aug. 2, Kansas voters over-
whelmingly rejected a ballot
measure that would have let
state lawmakers impose new
NEW YORK (AP) — The president's first midterm role in Trump's push to over- restrictions on abortions.
possibility of a great red election. Ronald Reagan lost turn the 2020 election. She emphasized Republican
wave still looms. 26 House seats, Bill Clinton leaders' record of supporting Trump-backed Republicans
lost 52, Barack Obama 63 The state senator and retired exceptions for abortion in who oppose abortion rights
But as the 2022 midterm and Trump 40. Only George military officer helped orga- cases of rape, incest and the are fighting for momentum
elections enter their final W. Bush's Republican Party nize the state's effort to sub- life of the mother, sidestep- in several swing states.
two-month sprint, leading enjoyed a modest eight-seat mit fake presidential electors ping questions about candi-
Republicans concede that gain in his first midterm, beholden to Trump and was dates like Mastriano, Georgia A leading Republican Senate
their party's advantage may be coming after the Sept. 11 ter- seen outside the Capitol as Senate nominee Herschel super PAC recently canceled
slipping even as Democrats rorist attacks. pro-Trump demonstrators at- Walker and Florida Sen. Mar- television ad reservations in
confront their president's tacked police on Jan. 6, 2021. co Rubio, who oppose such Arizona, where Blake Mas-
weak standing, deep voter Nine weeks before Election He has also alienated mod- exceptions. ters is running, while com-
pessimism and the weight of Day, leading operatives in erate voters and even some mitting $28 million to help
history this fall. both parties expect Repub- Republicans with divisive On the Republican Party's Trump loyalist JD Vance in
licans to pick up roughly 10 positions on several issues, broader midterm outlook, Ohio, a state Trump carried
The political landscape, while to 20 House seats, which including abortion, which he McDaniel said top races were by 8 points in the last elec-
still in flux, follows a string would give the GOP a nar- opposes in all circumstances. always likely to tighten, de- tion. In Pennsylvania, there
of President Joe Biden's leg- row majority in the cham- spite the conventional wis- are concerns that Mastriano
islative victories on climate, ber in November and break Mastriano's campaign didn't dom that a massive red wave is dragging down the rest of
health care and gun violence, up Democrats' control of respond to an interview re- was building. the Republican ticket, while
just as Donald Trump's hand- the federal government. But quest for this story. Trump-endorsed GOP Sen-
picked candidates in electoral many Republicans are losing Biden pollster John Anza- ate nominee Mehmet Oz
battlegrounds like Arizona, confidence in the high-stakes Shapiro will launch his first lone, who was far less confi- is struggling with residency
Georgia, Ohio and Penn- fight for the Senate majority TV ad of the fall campaign on dent about the midterm out- questions. And in Georgia,
sylvania struggle to broaden and key governorships across Tuesday, casting Mastriano's look at the beginning of the Walker is facing difficult
their appeal. But nothing has the nation. fierce opposition to abor- summer. questions about his past and
undermined the GOP's mo- tion rights and gay marriage his opposition to abortion in
mentum more than the Su- In Pennsylvania, Democratic as a threat to Pennsylvania's Senate Republican lead- all cases.
preme Court's stunning deci- gubernatorial candidate Josh economy. The ad is the first er Mitch McConnell has
sion in June to end abortion Shapiro argues that his focus spot in a $16.9 million tele- blamed GOP "candidate Rep. Tom Emmer, the Min-
protections, which triggered on public safety, education, vision advertising investment quality" for why his party was nesota Republican who leads
a swift backlash even in the the economy and freedom is the campaign reserved for more likely to win the House the House GOP campaign
reddest of red states. driving his momentum but the nine weeks leading up to than the Senate. arm, warned his party against
concedes that his opponent is Election Day. taking anything for granted.
History suggests Republicans also a major factor. Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who
should dominate the No- Republican National Com- leads the Senate GOP cam- He noted that most of the
vember elections. In one of the nation's most mittee Chair Ronna Mc- paign arm, sees it differently. seats Republicans are target-
important swing states, Re- Daniel acknowledged that ing this fall are set in districts
In the modern era, the party publicans nominated Doug the GOP must sharpen its Scott did acknowledge Biden carried, a contrast
that holds the White House Mastriano as their nomi- message on abortion given some uncertainty involving from past elections where
has lost congressional seats nee for governor, even after the Democrats' apparent mo- Trump's role in the coming Republicans found success in
in virtually every first-term learning about his leading mentum. weeks. GOP-leaning districts.