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Obstacles to progress
Challenges
Richard Cincotta has found that the chance of a country being a stable democracy exceeds
50% only once it has progressed in its demographic transition to the point where its median
age is 29.5 194 ; the chances of being a stable democracy rise to 80% when median age reaches
35.46 With a few exceptions in northern and southern Africa, virtually all African countries have
a median age below 25, and for many, it is below 20. Indeed, the median age for Africa as a
whole is just 19.4 years. Most African countries are thus decades away from reaching the age
structures favorable to sustaining democratic rule. “
"Africa 2050: Demographic Truth and Consequences." 86
Hoover Institution.
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