Page 23 - Nile Explorer Issue 007

Even when we are able to avoid a high
human toll from this virus, we would
not be able to escape a much higher
economic toll. We may have a recession.
The challenge right 11ow must be to
mitigate it, since we cannot avoid it.
Already, we see forced currency devalu-
Œ “  ations from the Cape to Cairo. These

will no doubt lead to internal inflation,

“  which will spell trouble for nations like
Nigeria, that have a high external dollar
debt burden.

ƒ  Already, the United Nations Economic
Commission for Africa is projecting
that Africa’s growth will at least drop to
1.8%, and maybe more. Bear in mind
efore the novel coronavirus that originated outside the continent. that, thanks to nations like Rwanda,
Bpandemic hit the globe, Nigeria Nigeria’s index case was Italian, Liberia’ Ethiopia and Tanzania, we had been
spent 42% of her earnings on debt s was Swiss. Ethiopia had a Iapanese projected to grow 3.2% this year.
servicing. Wehave arrived at a new index. South Africa‘ s index case was
reality today: even if we devote 100% of South African, but he and his family got Faced with this crisis, Africa cannot
our income to rebuilding our economy, infected in Italy. even think of falling back on China, or
it still will not be enough This crisis should force a commonality the West. When a country like the US is

COVID19 has wreaked such damage to of purpose in Africa. And more so in struggling to supply its own healthcare
workers with personal protective equip-
the world’s economy, and this is now Nigeria. This is beyond politics. Beyond ment, Africa will not feature high on its
very evident in the West. But we should religion. Beyond region. And beyond priority. Where China is wondering
not take solace in any false sense of ethnicity. As crisis go, this one can be how to explain itself to the world when
security that nations like Nigeria are described as existential. this dies down, our challenges will be far
either immune to the vagaries of this While it is true that in a situation like from their minds. We must fallback on
plague or that we would not be as hard this, the international community ourselves, or we will fall headlong. We
hit. The reason countries in the Western should invest in all countries needing must take responsibility for navigating
hemisphere are reporting more signifi- help, we must be mature enough to see our way out of a challenge that was
cant numbers than developing nations that that is not going to happen. The forced on us from outside the continent.
is primarily due to the availability of only thing that is standing in the way of
testing and real—time information. the coronavirus in Africa is ourselves. This is the time for every money made

Ignorance is not bliss in this instance. And we should not give in to panic by in Africa to stay in Africa. We have
hospitals to build. We have economies
We shall soon know the truth and, sadly, the doomsday scenarios being painted to reboot. We have citizens to care for
this truth will not set us free. It will by analysts. They mean well, but if they and return to work. We certainly should
shock us. Had we closed our ports of only shout fire in a crowded theatre, all not be sending money out of Africa and
entry early, we would probably have had that their good intentions will cause is into Asia and the West. Not now and not
better reasons to be hopeful. However, widespread panic. for the foreseeable future.
the past is gone, but we must be proac-
tive in going forward. We must remember that many of them Oil prices have crashed, and that by
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but had predicted that Nigeria would cease itself should not be enough to trigger a
crisis. After all, the current price of oil
to exist as a corporate entity by 2015,
Nigeria and other African nations are but here we are. was lower than it is today when Presi-
yet to see the worst of the effects of this dent Obasanjo and I assumed office on
scourge. That is why we should unite We had the Wild Ebola Virus, and we May 29, 1999.
together and seek debt forgiveness, as a defeated it because we did not panic. We
direct consequence of the impact of this must apply that same level—headedness However, there are two remarkable
pandemic on our economies. to this crisis. But this does not mean that differences. The first is that we had a
And we have a perfect case because we should go to the other extreme and stellar cabinet between 1999-2007. We
had the right people manning our econ-
become overly optimistic or pollyanna-
almost every African nation with a ish. omy. We certainly would not have
COVID19 infestation had an index case proposed to take out a $500 million loan

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