Page 79 - BFSI CHRONICLE 3092022.indd

BFSI Chronicle, 11 Edition September 2022
th

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

IN A TECHNOLOGY

(AND INFORMATION)

ABUNDANT WORLD

On the Nature of The God
I n his book “On the Nature of The God”(Cicero, 45 C.E.)
Roman academic, skeptic and philosopher Cicero talks
about an incident of the Diagoras, the atheist. One of
Daigoras’ friends proudly showed him a painting of
people who had endured and lived through dangerous
storms and admonished Diagoras, for not recognizing
the benevolence of God that helped them to get through
hard times. To this, writes Cicero, Diagoras, the atheist,
replied- “I see those who were saved, but where are those
painted who were shipwrecked?”

Believed to written 45 BC, the above story cuts through
to the subject of the “Survivorship Bias”. Before under-
standing what it actually is, let us jump two centuries
ahead to the time of World War II (1939-45).

Downed Planes and Bullet Holes
Its 1943- the US is losing lots of bomber planes to the
German air defense. They need a quick fix plan for
cutting losses and ideas for reinforcing the planes so
that they can withstand the German artillery. They
consult the wizards of the SRG- Statistical Research
Group at Columbia University which at one moment
was staffed by distinguished people like Friedman,
Stiegler and the famous mathematician Abraham Wald
(Casselman, 2016).
Shri Prodeepto Chatterjee
Assistant General Manager The most obvious and intuitive approach could have
Pension Fund Regulatory and Development been - observe and study the planes that are return-
Authority, New Delhi ing and study their bullet hole patterns. Based on the

The Institute Of Cost Accountants Of India

79