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Arthurs’ Notes

The S&P 500 had another particularly impressive year in 2021, up 28.17% with
dividends included. However, some of the best bull markets require pullbacks
and so far, (as of 1/10/22) that’s what we’ve seen to kick off 2022. The S&P
was down 2.5% in the opening week of trading and you’ll hear naysayers out
there with comments like “the party is over is over for stocks” but historical
trends show that’s not the case. Since 1950, there have been 19 years when the S&P gained 20% or more.
In 16 of those instances the market finished higher the following year. If you’ve read “Arthurs’ Notes” before
you probably know by now that I’m very passionate about stocks (along with golf and fishing) and oftentimes
leads to me talking about stocks with friends and family. In a conversation with my mother-in-law about
the recent selloff earlier this year she said, “I maybe look at it once a quarter” referring to her investment
account. She’s been a long-term investor her whole life and understands the short-term ups and downs of
the stock market. At first, this baffled me because from a young age, I’ve studied the stock market almost
every day even before I had money to invest. But the more I thought about it, the more I thought… that’s a
pretty good approach for investing especially if you’ve hired someone you trust to do it for you. Hence why
my clients stay invested, stick to a game plan and we rebalance portfolio’s accordingly to long term targets.
Here are some bullets from one of my fairly recent letters to investors:
4 Corporate Earnings grew at a faster rate than 4 The most recent wave of Covid, the US Federal
the stock market last year meaning the market Government did not institute any lockdowns.
trades at lower multiples than this time
last year. 4 Between the Trump and Biden administration
approximately $6.2 Trillion Dollars have been
4 Jobless claims recently fell to the lowest level in issued in the form of fiscal stimulus (equates to
50 years with the unemployment rate at 3.9%. almost $19,000 a person).
U.S. deposits have grown 127% over the
past year. 4 The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage is ~3.25% and the national average
4 Granted inflation has some worried about interest rate paid on a new car loan is 4.73%.
grocery prices, people tend to ignore the fact Credit is still widely available at near historically
that home and used car values have gone up low interest rates.
significantly as well.
4 In a recent AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs
4 U.S. corporate balance sheets are 45% higher Research survey, 65% of Americans are
than the average of the preceding five years. optimistic about their own situations and an
even higher percentage express confidence
they could find a good job right now.

Arthurs Wealth Management is an independent minded advisory firm. Please visit arthurswealthmanagement.
com for info or to schedule a complimentary review of your portfolio. This commentary is for informational
purposes only and is solely the opinion expressed by Arthurs Wealth Management. We reserve the right to modify
our investment strategy based on market dynamics/individual client needs.

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