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is rather weak. We would not expect innate variations to be directly affected
by training. But even if innate differences in the cognitive architecture turn
out to be real and influential, it does not follow that the probability of non­
monotonic change is fixed or unaffected by what we do. several aspects of a
person’s lifestyle that can affect the probability of non­monotonic change are
under voluntary control.
To create, adapt or convert, we have to try. in contrast to Picasso’s famous
comment about finding rather than searching, i claim that deciding to search is
a major determinant of the probability of finding. This factor is under volun­
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tary control. We can choose what kinds of projects we undertake, how often we
undertake them and how much effort we invest in them. Consistent with this, a
recurring feature of the life trajectories of highly creative people is their immense
productivity. Creation is hard work. (After six days of it, even a very superior
being might feel like taking a day off.) We do not have equally conclusive data
with respect to the ability to adapt to novel or changing task environments or the
willingness to revise beliefs, but it is plausible that people who change frequently
do so because they deliberately seek out situations that require change.
The probability of non­monotonic change is to some extent a function of
preparation, the footwork needed to get into a position in which such a change
becomes a possibility. For a non­monotonic change to occur, a person has to
possess, through prior learning, concepts and skills out of which the novel
idea or action can be constructed. To contribute something new to a field of
activity, a person has to work long and hard to acquire the requisite building
blocks, whether those building blocks belong to the field itself or need to be
imported from some neighboring field. louis Pasteur put this idea succinctly
in his famous statement that “in the fields of observation chance favors only
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those minds which are prepared.” This factor is also under voluntary control.
We can take sunday off or we can spend the day reading research articles; we
can engage colleagues in small talk or in professionally relevant discussion;
we can decide to master new professional tools or we can decide to stick with
the known ones; and so on. Building a rich knowledge base is a long­term
endeavor and it requires the habits of studying, discussing and practicing.
Closely related to the amount of effort invested in preparation is the vari­
ability of personal experience. some life trajectories go in a circle inside a single
environment, while others zigzag from one context to another. We can choose
to float easily in the familiar pond or we can subject ourselves to the swells of
novel experiences. sameness creates a narrow range of options, while varied
experiences provide a wider range. The experiences we subject ourselves to
might not alter our basic cognitive machinery but they supply the content of