Page 304 - The Chief Culprit

Intelligence Reports and Stalin’s Reaction y 249

frontier wrapped around various iron implements, so as not to arouse suspicion. Larger-than-
usual quantities of kerosene lamps, primus stoves, and lighters were sent across the border, by
both legal and illegal means.
Every piece of information was analyzed by hundreds of Soviet experts, and the results
reported immediately to Golikov. He immediately informed Stalin that Hitler had not yet
begun preparations to invade the Soviet Union, so there was no need to pay attention to every
buildup of German troops or German General Staff documents.
Golikov believed, with good reason, that a country needed serious preparation to fight
the Soviet Union. One of the vital things Germany would need, if it were to be ready to fight
such a war, was sheepskin coats—no fewer than six million of them. As soon as Hitler decided
to attack the Soviet Union, his General Staff would have to order industry to begin producing
millions of sheepskin coats. is would be reflected immediately on the European markets.
In spite of the war, mutton prices would fall because of the simultaneous slaughter of millions
of animals, while sheepskin prices would rise sharply.
Golikov also calculated that the German army would have to use a new type of lu-
bricating oil for its weaponry. e usual oil used by Germany would congeal in the frost,
component parts would freeze together, and the weapons would not work. Golikov waited
for the German army to change the type of oil it used in weapon-cleaning. e Soviet experts’
examination of dirty cloths showed that the German army was still using its usual oil, and
there were no signs of a change to a new type.
Soviet experts also watched motor fuel. In heavy frost, the normal German fuel broke
down into incombustible components. Golikov knew that if Hitler decided to open a second
front, he would have to order the mass production of a fuel which would not disintegrate in
heavy frost. Soviet intelligence was sending samples of German liquid fuel across the border
in lighters and lamps. ere were many other indicators, which the GRU followed closely
for warning signals.
But Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa without making any preparations. Stalin,
therefore, had no reason to punish Golikov. Golikov had done all that was humanly possible
to discover German preparations for war. He told Stalin that no preparations were taking
place, and this was the truth. ere had only been a great buildup of German troops. Golikov
gave instructions that not all German divisions had to be targets of attention, but only those
that were ready to invade; those were divisions that had 15,000 sheepskin coats in their de-
pots. ere were simply no such divisions ready for war in the entire Wehrmacht.
e GRU chiefs knew where, what quantities, and what kinds of liquid fuel and lubri-
cating oils were produced in Germany and the occupied territories. e quantities of liquid
fuel possessed by Hitler were not at all sufficient to conduct deep offensive operations. But
the most attention was paid to the type of fuel they produced. Analysis showed that Germany
was not conducting intensive research in the field of creating frost-resistant fuels and oils;
German industry was not producing them in any significant quantity; the rear units of the
Wehrmacht Heer and the Luftwaffe were not storing such fuel and oil for a grand-scale war.
e temperature at which pure benzene crystallizes is 5.4 Celsius. In Germany, fuel
was obtained by the hydrogenation of low-quality coal. Into this fuel, large quantities of ben-
zol had to be added to raise the levels of octane. Benzol has high anti-detonation qualities.
However, it drastically reduces low-temperature qualities. e temperature of crystallization
for the main kinds of German fuels ranged between –9.6 and –14.5 Celsius. Only a madman