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198     PART 2  Managing Business Behavior


                                     example, the events of September 11, 2001, clearly changed many corporate HR
                                     demand forecasts.) Is the college planning any new initiatives, such as an endowed
                                     center for international accounting, that may have an impact on this analysis? Gov-
                                     ernment data and computer simulations testing various scenarios will likely help in
                                     conducting such forecasting.



                                     Forecasting Human Resources Supply

                                     Forecasting HR supply involves looking at both internal and external labor supply.
                                     In the accounting department example, it may be possible that individuals already
                                     working or coming to work at the college have the credentials for this job or can be
                                     retrained or redirected to do it. Conversely, it may be necessary to hire for this job
                                     from the external market. In general, employers have an easier time making fore-
                                     casts about the internal supply of labor than about the external supply.

                                     Internal Labor Supply Forecasts.    Organizations use various techniques to
        replacement charts Charts outlining  try to forecast the internal supply of labor. At the managerial level, replacement
        possible replacements for key  charts of key personnel and their possible replacements already within the organi-
        personnel
                                     zation are kept. In essence, firms keep a list of replacement workers ready and
                                     able to step into top jobs in case of an unexpected event (e.g., a plane crash dis-
                                     abling or killing the company’s CEO or CFO), resignation, retirement, and so on.
        skills inventory A data bank listing  Companies also frequently use computer technology to compile a skills inventory,
        skills, experiences, and aspirations of  which is a data bank containing information about the skills, experiences, and aspi-
        present employees
                                     rations of all present employees. This data bank then aids both line and HR man-
                                     agers in identifying company personnel to fill new or newly available positions. For
                                     example, if a company is opening a new office in Lisbon, Portugal, and is looking to
                                     transfer employees who speak Portuguese to that office, the computerized skills
                                     inventory can very quickly identify possible candidates.

                                     External Supply Forecasts.     Forecasting the external availability of certain
                                     types of labor is a somewhat more difficult exercise for most businesses. Figures
                                     supplied by various government sources, such as state employment commissions,
                                     and by colleges with respect to the numbers of majors in different fields may be
                                     helpful.



                                     Matching Supply with Demand
                                     Once armed with the forecasts of the supply of labor, HR and other managers can
                                     begin making decisions. If it appears that the demand for personnel is going to be
                                     greater than the supply, recruiting efforts will likely be commenced. Recruitment
                                     may be for permanent employees or possibly for contingent or temporary work-
                                     ers—a trend that is growing. Conversely, if the labor supply is forecast to likely be
                                     greater than the demand, paring back the workforce needs to take place. Most
                                     organizations initially try to achieve such paring back by way of attrition, that is, not
                                     replacing employees when they leave. If attrition doesn’t bring supply and demand
                                     into proper balance, other actions ranging from special early retirement incentive
                                     programs to layoffs may be necessary.

                                        reality      What types of jobs do you think are going to be the most plentiful in
                                      CH ECK         your community over the next decade?




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