Page 3 - RiskAssessment

General description of the methodology

During the workshop, the participants used the STAR tool (Strategic Tool for Assessing
Risks) developed by WHO to guide reflections and analyses of the group as well to facilitate
the capture of data on the public health threats and risks identified (for more details about
the methodology refer to the STAR facilitator guide). The STAR tool has been prepared to
enable countries to conduct an evidence-based approach for the assessment of the risks
which can be applied in a comparable, reproducible and defensible manner. The STAR tool
identifies priorities for the development of contingency plans and specific responses and
prioritizes the potential needs for enhancing national capacity in terms of preparedness
and response.

The level of risk is determined as a product of the likelihood of it occurring and the impact
it will have on the health care system. The impact itself depends on the severity of health
risks, community vulnerability and the ability of the health system to cope with the scale of

the event (potential health crisis scenario).

During the workshop, participants first identified their list of possible and probable hazards
and their health consequences. Hazards scale and population exposure are determined for
each and every hazard. After that, the likelihood of occurrence for each hazard is ranked on

a scale of almost certain, very likely, likely, unlikely and very unlikely. This likelihood has
been determined according to the periodicity and seasonality of the hazards. Then based
on structured discussion among participants using the scale (Very high, High, Partial, Low
and Very low) for rating severity, existing vulnerabilities and coping capacities to the hazard
and consequences. The impact is then determined by either (Negligible, Minor, Moderate,
Severe, Critical). In the end, all these measures determined the level of risk.

3.b: Limitations

Not all epidemiological data was available at the time of the workshop, so some of the
estimates for the scale of events due to epidemic-prone diseases may not be fully accu-
rate, while the robustness of the surveillance system may be an impediment to accurate
estimates of numbers, even when epidemiological data was available. These limitations
have however had no real impact on the relevance of the results obtained during this work-
shop and they remain quite exploitable by the wider health sector. However, if these
results are to be used in other multisectoral platforms or for coordination, they should be

validated in advance with all departments and partners involved in preparedness, coordina-
tion and emergency response.