Page 18 - BSA's Something's Brewing - May 2021
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Page 18 www.beveragestandardsassociation.co.uk
MAY. 2021 | VOL. 17
Peter Backman on the year ahead
In normal times, preparing forecasts for the I think there will be many such changes. And
hospitality industry follows a standard format. successful operators and suppliers
You look at recent trends, develop hypotheses as will look out for them changes, and develop
to what will happen and why, check them out, workable, alternative responses and coping
produce a forecast generally of an increase or strategies.
decrease in the range of 2-4%. Job done.
But of course, these are not normal times. There
are many moving parts, and very little in the way
of back history. So putting numbers to a forecast
is quite fraught at the moment – and subject to
pretty much constant change. Instead I can offer
three themes on the subject of change, as a way
to view what the
next 12 months in hospitality might look like.
The first theme is the changing consumer. After a The second theme is the changing operator.
year or more of lockdown, and constantly coping A year or more of lockdown has created a
with the impact of Covid, it would amaze me if the huge hole in most balance sheets
consumer was to emerge as the same person (sometimes filled with new debt, and
who went into the pandemic in 2020. sometimes avoided by finding a way to
trade profitably, perhaps through delivery).
Much effort and energy will be devoted to
reducing this debt over the coming year
(and much longer). This will manifest itself in
different ways. For some it will mean
developing more efficient ways of doing
things by spending less per £ of income. For
others, it will be a reluctant recognition that
closure is to be preferred to battling on. For
There will be obvious changes (some having more others, it will be rapid expansion with &
money to spend, some having less, some people profitable business model. There will be
having to cope with the financial and other opportunities too; for acquisition,
impacts of the death of someone close, and divestment, franchising, and more.
more). But there will also be deeper, hidden
emotional and psychological changes. In the The third and final theme is changing
hospitality environment, these will manifest infrastructure. Key elements of hospitality
themselves in new ways that consumers react, infrastructure are people and places –
perhaps they will no longer be turned on by tried otherwise known as employees and
and trusted sales messages, or perhaps they will landlords.
shun brands that they used to run towards.
