Page 35 - The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

Table 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Importing

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

∆ln(pijt) ∆ln(mijt) ∆ln(mijt) ∆ln(pijt´mijt) ∆ln(pijt´mijt) ∆ln(pit´mit)

∆ln(1+Tariffijt) -0.003 -1.299*** -6.026*** -1.380*** -6.466*** -3.757***
(0.024) (0.094) (0.597) (0.090) (0.791) (0.760)

N 1,576,955 1,576,955 3,178,368 2,379,947 4,271,990 373,422
R 0.021 0.025 0.108 0.02 0.111 0.43
2

Notes: Observations are at the HTS10-country-month level for the period January 2017 to December 2018. Variables are
in 12 month log change. Standard errors are clustered at the HTS 8-digit level. All columns include HTS10 product fixed
effects and country x year fixed effects. The dependent variable in column (1) is the log change of prices (before U.S. duties
are applied) charged by foreign exporters. The dependent variables in column (2) and (3) are the log change and the change
in the inverse hyperbolic sine of U.S. import quantities. The dependent variables in column (5) and (6) are the log change
and the change in the inverse hyperbolic sine of U.S. import values. We use the inverse of the hyperbolic sine transformation
[log(x+(x +1) )] to be able to estimate changes when import quantities or values are zero in t or t–12. Columns 1-3 drop
2
0.5
any observations with a ratio of unit values in t relative to t–12 greater than 3 and less than 1/3. Column 6 collapses the
country dimension, so an observation is an HTS10-month. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. * p < 0.10 ** p <
0.05 *** p < 0.01.

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