Page 39 - The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

Table 5: Regressions of Non-Petroleum Merchandise Producer Price Index (PPI) onto
Import Tariffs

Dependent Variable: ∆log(PPIit) 12-Month Change

Panel A: Regression Coefficients:

Import Sharei x ∆ln(1+Output Tariffit) 0.487**
(0.210)

Input Import Intensityi x ∆ln(1+Input Tariffit) 1.798***
(0.646)

Fixed Effects: Industry and Time Yes

Panel B: Implied Aggregate Effects:
Input Tariff Effect: 0.857
Output Tariff Effect: 0.230
Total Effect: 1.087

N 8350
#Industries 334
R 2 0.453

Notes: The dependent variable is the 12-month change in log PPI, while the tariffs are entered
as the 12-month changes in log(1+Tariffit). The sample period is monthly data from January
2017 to December 2018. Standard errors in parentheses, clustered on BEA IO code. Input
import intensities constructed using only tradable non-service inputs. Standard errors are
reported in parentheses. * p < 0.10 ** p < 0.05 *** p < 0.01.

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