Page 28 - TTMA 75th Annual Convention Bulletin

Our next speaker was Mr. Thom Albrecht, who returned to give the Industry
Economic Forecast.

Mr. Albrecht began his presentation by announcing that “Happ y Days” are here again,
and while that is good news overall, it is not without a downside:

Pros

• Recovery in oil prices

• History: Industrial production was set to recover regardless of the election

• Wage improvement to accelerate

• Stable commodity prices after falling for 2 years will help production

• Household debt significantly lower than 2008-2009 Thom Albrecht

• Corporate investment to rise due to lower tax rates and repatriation of
foreign earnings
• Likely higher infrastructure spending
• Inventories in better shape
• Likely reduction in individual marginal tax rates
• More pragmatic regulatory environment

Cons

• Trade policies: pragmatic changes forthcoming or protectionist policies that stifle trade?

• Strong dollar likely to crimp exports

• Gasoline prices: if prices rise to ~$3.10 to $3.25 a gallon then consumer spending likely to slow

• Constraints on the labor force: while helpful for wages, GDP growth could be slower than expectations unless

productivity surges

• Rising interest rates could hamper housing

• Auto and aerospace already at peak/record levels

Mr. Albrecht’s overall prediction is that 2017 is likely to have a similar feel to 2016, however by 2018 (maybe Q3’17?) a mix

of tight capacity and fiscal stimulus points to happy days!

Next Mr. Albrecht shifted his focus to discussing key trailer population dynamics; the main takeaways from this portion are:

• Population Analysis: Reefers Up 12.9% Since 2013, Flats up 4.3%; Next 2 Years: Reefer up 6.6% and Flats up ~1%

• Van Trailer Growth Outpacing Van Loads

• Reefer Trailer Growth Outpacing Reefer Loads

• Platform/Flatbeds Loads Outpacing Units