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South African Pavement Engineering Manual
                                              Chapter 10:  Pavement Design


                                                         1 �
                                                   HVV    n
                                                       n
                                              r = ��    �   − 1�
                                                   HVV 1                                               (12)

                               where  r      =    Heavy vehicle volume growth rate (%)
                                      HVV n    =   Heavy vehicle volume at year n
                                      HVV 1    =   Heavy vehicle volume at year 1


              Table 17.  Recommended Traffic Growth Rates Based on Historical Data for South Africa
               Route Description and Economic Activity                         Heavy Vehicle Volume
                                                                                 Growth Rates (%)
                                                                              Range         Typical Long-
                                                                            (pre 2007)       term Values
               Major routes connecting centres of major economic development     9 to 19        6 to 10
               Routes connecting centres of moderate economic development     6 to 8            4 to 7
               Routes in areas of stagnant economic development              0.5 to 1.5         0 to 2

              TRH16 uses a technique developed by Bosman (1989 and 2004) to distinguish between routes with different heavy
              vehicle compositions.   Routes are classified  according to the percentage of 2  axle heavy vehicles in the total HV
              traffic.  Although the extended vehicle classification does not separate out 2 axle heavy vehicles, the short vehicle
              class should consist mostly of 1 and 2 axle heavy vehicles.  Using the percentage of short heavy vehicles (SHV) as an
              indicator of heavy vehicle composition, recommended E80/HV values are given in Table 18.  These values should
              only be used for new design, or, where there are good reasons for not conducting an axle load survey on an existing
              road.    The  values  are  based  on  a  damage  law  exponent  of  4.2  and  could  be  higher  for  more  load  sensitive
              pavements (see Section 4.1.3).

              Potential E80/HV growth rates are  shown in  Table 18.   These  growth rates only apply if the freight movement
              demand increases on a route with an existing low or moderate freight movement demand, under normal overloading
              control  levels.    The  E80/HV  at  the  end  of  the  analysis  period  must  not  exceed  realistic  levels  when  using  these
              growth rates.  Under strict overloading control, the E80/HV is limited by the legal axle loads and no growth occurs.
              When the freight movement demand is high, with normal overloading control, the E80/HV is limited by the vehicle
              capacity.  Increases in demand are accommodated by increasing heavy vehicle volumes.


              Table 18.  Recommended  E80/HV  Values  and Growth Rates  for  Heavy Vehicle Classes  for
                         Design Purposes
              Overloading control by                       Normal                               Strict
              law enforcement
              Freight movement            Low             Moderate            High            All levels
                                          1
              demand                 (SHV  > 45%)     (SHV = 20 – 45%)    (SHV < 20%)
              Heavy Vehicle Class                        Recommended E80/HV Values
              Short heavy                                  0.5 – 1.5                           0.4 – 0.8
              Medium heavy              1.0 – 4.0                   2.0 – 5.0                  1.0 – 3.0
              Long heavy                1.5 – 4.5          3.5 – 6.0         4.5 – 7.0         3.0 – 5.0
              All heavy                 0.8 – 2.8          2.0 – 4.5         3.0 – 5.0         2.0 – 3.0
              Heavy Vehicle Class                            E80/HV Growth Rates
              Short heavy                          0
              Medium heavy                  3               0                 0                   0
              Long heavy                    5               2
              All heavy                     6               2
              Notes
              1.  SHV = short heavy vehicle, 1 and 2 axle heavy vehicles

              The heavy vehicle volume growth rate (Table 17) and the E80/HV growth rate (Table 18) are combined into a single
              growth rate for the AADE using Equation (13).






                                              Section 4:  Design Traffic Estimation
                                                         Page 43
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