Page 8 - 04 Cotton SA October 2014

Nuus - News
COTTON MARKET REPORT AS AT 3 SEPTEMBER 2014

International Estimated world supply and demand for cotton New York JULY cotton futures as at
for the 2012/13 season and projections for the beginning of each week:
World ending stocks are projected to increase 2013/14 and 2014/15 (seasons beginning 1
for the 5th consecutive season reaching an August):
estimated 22.2 million tons at the end of
the 2014/15 season. The ICAC (International
Cotton Advisory Committee) estimates that a
record 9.7 million tons of these stocks will be
held outside China, up 14% from the previous
season. The high stocks outside of China are
expected to continue to place downward
pressure on international prices especially New York cotton futures as at 3 Sept 2014
seen against the background that the Chinese (settlement prices):
government is expected to sell about 2
– 3 million tons of its own reserve stocks
annually The Cotlook A index (an indicator A index and global stocks-to-use ratio
of international cotton prices) dropped to 73 (China excluded):
US c/lb in August, the lowest level in almost 5
years.
Although world cotton consumption for
2014/15 is expected to rise by about 4% with no
increase in world cotton production expected,
this season will be the 5th consecutive season
in which production exceeds consumption.
As with production, China and India
accounts for about half of the world’s cotton
consumption. Cotton consumption in both
these countries is expected to grow by about
5% in 2014/15. Local outlook
According to the ICAC, world cotton trade will As far as the local outlook is concerned, the
decline by about 1 million tons to 8 million 8th estimate for the 2013/14 production year
tons in 2014/15, largely due to an expected indicates a total crop of 48 844 lint bales, down
30% decline in Chinese cotton imports. Due 2% from the previous month’s estimate. About
to the expectation of bumper crops in both 44 344 lint bales are estimated to be produced
the USA and India, these two countries will from RSA grown seed cotton, up 70% from
remain the world’s largest cotton exporters the previous season. The balance of 4 500 lint Average Cotlook A index prices and corre-
in 2014/15, accounting for about 44% of all bales relates to expected Swaziland produced sponding South African “prices”:
cotton trade. cotton to be ginned by the Swaziland gin.

The COTLOOK A INDEX is a daily indicator of
international cotton lint prices and is the average
of the cheapest 5 quotations (cost & freight)
from a selection of the principal upland cottons
traded internationally, destination Far East.
COTTON CROP REPORT – 8th estimate 2013/14 production year

Katoen SA Cotton 8 September 2014