Page 12 - ASBIRES-2017_Preceedings

A CASE STUDY ON THE QUALITY OF ALUMINIUM CABLES AND FORECASTING THE DEMAND OF
ALUMINIUM CABLES

2 LITERATURE REVIEW monthly demand of Aluminium cables.
SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) 12 model was
(Aydemir, Bedir & Ozdemir, 2013) fitted to the stationary data and the residuals
described the importance of forecasting
customer demand. The production data were were checked for the adequacy of the model.
used for obtaining the forecasting equations The Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box)
and their performances were evaluated with ChiPercentage Error (MAPE) value is used
mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to find the accuracy of the fitted models.
value. The quality of wires was described by 4 DATA COLLECTION
(Pons, Bayley, Laurenson, Hunt, Tyree &
Aitchison, 2012). The purpose of this study 4.1 Primary Data
was to determine which wire properties 50 samples from each wire category
most influence on fence manufacturability. were tested from three wire categories to
(Pons, Bayley, Tyree, Hunt, & Laurenson, collect the data for the variables resistivity,
2014) described the materials properties of
wire quality. According to Abdulkareem, breaking strength, insulation thickness, outer
Akinbulire & Agbetuyi (2014) the factors diameter of cable, diameter of bare
that affect the quality and material conductor, Aluminium weight of a
consumption of cables were described. conductor and XLPE weight of a cable. The
Considered factors were elongation (%), samples were selected using the
maximum breaking force, tensile strength, convenience sampling method. Data were
o
insulation resistance at 70 C, moisture adopted for the hypothesis testing.
absorption (%), high voltage test, cracking 4.2 Secondary Data
o
at 150 C / 2hrs and other physical
observations. Lengths of monthly demand of cables
were collected from the production
3 METHODOLOGY department of the Aluminium cable factory

3.1 Quality of the Aluminium Cables for ten years from 2006 to 2016.
There are three types of wires: 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2
2
70mm phase, 54.6mm neutral and 16mm 2 5.1 Quality of Aluminium Cables
light considered to test the quality. The
standard values are defined for these three The standard values of three types of
types of wires for the variables: resistivity, wires for each variable is shown in Table 1.
breaking strength, insulation thickness, outer Table 1:Standard values
2
2
2
diameter of cable, diameter of bare Variable 70mm 54.6mm 16mm
conductor, Aluminium weight of a Phase Neutral Light
conductor, XLPE (Crosslink Polyethylene) Thickness /(mm) 1.8 1.6 1.2
weight of a cable. The T test was conducted Outer Diameter 13.3 12.7 6.8
to identify whether these variables follow /(mm)
the standards. A sample of 50 were taken for Conductor
all three types of wire. Diameter /(mm) 10.2 9.8 3.4
̅ −
Test Statistic = (1) Aluminium 183.26 149.37 82.28
√
⁄
Hypothesis Weight /(kg/km)
: = ( ) XLPE 62.46 64.15 32.12
0
0
: ≠ ( ) weight/(Kg/km)
0
1
Breaking
3.2 Forecasting the Demand of Aluminium Strength /(daN) 840 1660 190
Cables Resistivity 0.443 0.63 1.91
/(ohm/km)
Box Jenkins methodology is used to
2
develop a forecasting model to forecast the A summary of the t-test for 70mm
Phase wire is shown in Table 2.

2