Page 166 - ASBIRES-2017_Preceedings
P. 166

Gunasekara & Dharmawardane



                5     4     3     2
       f(x) = p1x + p2x + p3x + p4x + p5x + p6           p1 = 901.9 (-1879, 3683)
            Where x is normalized by mean 5 and          p2 = 2604 (29.76, 5179)
       standard deviation 2.739. Coefficients (with      Goodness of fit:
       95% confidence bounds) are given below.
                                                           SSE: 3.511e+07
            p1 =-105.2 (-601.2, 390.9)
            p2 = 55.72 (-284.7, 396.3)                     R-square: 0.2529
                                                           Adjusted R-square: 0.1035
            p3 = 32.26(-1060, 1705)                        RMSE: 2650
            p4 =-54.16 (-826.1, 717.8)
            p5 =-167.9 (-990.7, 665)                         According  to  the  model  25.29%
            p6 =179.9(-120.1, 479.9)                     variation  can  be  explained.  The  following
       Goodness of fit:                                  figure illustrates deaths on house during the

        SSE: 6.388e+04                                   period 2012 to September-2016.
        R-square: 0.4014
        Adjusted R-square: -0.5963
        RMSE: 145.9

        Coefficient  of  determination  is  40.14%.
       Monthly Guppy fish population for the year
       2016 is given by the following figure.










                                                                  Figure 3: Deaths on house

                                                             The  total  deaths  on  house  throughout  a
                                                         month are taken from the stock sheet to plot
                                                         monthly deaths on house in order to analysis
                                                         whether there is an increasing or decreasing
                                                            trend.  According  to  the  figure,  relatively
        Figure 2: Monthly Guppy fish population          high  DOH  is  recorded  in  February  and
                    for the year 2016                    March. It had come to notice that there was
                                                                                      th
                                                         a sudden power failure on 14  March 2016
         The  population  of  month  January  is         which consequences the high DOH.
       excluded  as  an  outlier  in  Figure  2.
       Comparatively  the  highest  population  is            Moreover, it is expected to be opposite
       recorded  in  June.  The  fitted  linear  model  is   of the population graph derived for the same
       given by                                          period, due to many factors however it has
                                                         not  become  opposite.  One  reason  could  be
                       f(x) = p1x+p2
                                                         local  purchasing  during  the  considered
              Where x is normalized by mean 5 and        period. Though, DOH is higher in a certain
       standard  deviation  2.16  and  coefficients      time, if the local purchasing quantity is also
       (with95% confidence bounds) are given by          higher  during  the  same  time,  the  expected





                                                      156
   161   162   163   164   165   166   167   168   169   170   171