Page 9 - The Nile Explorer Magazine 011

Ghana, whose GDP growth rates of GDP. China, which has been from poor macroeconomic
have improved significantly over seriously affected by Covid-19 governance to corruption and
the past decade. If the Covid-19 and has reduced its acquisition of poor political governance. If the
pandemic doesn’t reach its full oil, is the main buyer of exports country suffers a massive and
scale, this group will be relatively (61% of total exports, mostly oil). full pandemic, the post-Covid-19
resilient, as these countries have Angola received about $10 billion growth narrative may not be one
developed some fundamentals, in oil-backed loans from China, of joy.
including improving state which also holds over half of its Each African country, regardless
capacity, macro - economic external debt. of its stage of economic growth,
management, and relations with The level of resilience and post- presents a particular set of
multilateral institutions. economic recovery will therefore opportunities across various
Given the reduced demand of be directly tied to exogenous sectors and a particular set of
chocolates around the world factors, but this doesn’t mean challenges in facing Covid-19.
during the pandemic crises, Cote that all is lost: good deals, like the African countries represent
d’Ivoire and Ghana, two of the
world’s largest producers of Cocoa
are also among the most exposed
to a price drop, with consequences
on their revenues. The other weak
point of this group of countries is
their healthcare systems, which
may not be able to handle a full-
on epidemic.
The third group of countries
includes those whose economic
performances have been either
very slow or have substantially
oscillated between growth and
decline over the past two decades.
The slow growers include the Graphical presentation of Novel coronavirus
Central African Republic, Chad,
and Zimbabwe, and the oscillating heavily indebted poor countries tremendous economic potential;
growers include Gabon, Malawi, (HIPC) initiative in the past, how the virus affects this
Nigeria and Angola. could potentially save the day. potential remains to be seen.

The post-Covid resilience and Another country worth Economic resilience will depend
growth narratives for this group highlighting, for different reasons, on policymakers adopting pro-
of countries will most likely is Zimbabwe. Up until 2009, growth and pro-poor policies
be heterogeneous, given their Zimbabwe’s GDP was constantly focused on productivity, income,
diversity of economic structures, on the decline. It improved demand, and inclusion, and
macroeconomic policies, political slightly in the early 2010s and on how they implement robust
regimes, and exposure to is now stabilizing at 3%, on par competition policies in markets
commodities, but it is this group with the overall African growth and industries in order to unlock
rate. Over the years, investments
of countries that will suffer the into Zimbabwe have remained private sector potential and
most. meager: the country attracts reduce barriers to growth.

Oil-rich countries such as Angola less than 1% of total FDI into Ultimately, accountable and
could be particularly exposed: the all of Africa. Zimbabwe’s poor effective leadership will be the

oil sector represents more than economic performance can be key to Africa’s resilience and
90% of its exports and one third tied to various factors, ranging successful transformation.

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