Page 20 - AfrElec Annual Review 2021

AfrElec DECEMBER- AfrElec

on track to speed up significantly from the pre- Despite rising prices limiting growth, global
vious five years. These four markets together biofuel demand in 2021 is forecast to surpass
account for 80% of renewable capacity expan- 2019 levels, rebounding from last year’s huge
sion worldwide. decline caused by the pandemic.
“The growth of renewables in India is out- Demand for biofuels is set to grow strongly
standing, supporting the government’s newly to 2026, with Asia accounting for almost 30%
announced goal of reaching 500GW of renew- of new production. India is expected to rise to
able power capacity by 2030 and highlighting become the third largest market for ethanol
India’s broader potential to accelerate its clean worldwide, behind the United States and Brazil.
energy transition,” said Dr Birol.
“China continues to demonstrate its clean Barriers to further growth
energy strengths, with the expansion of renew- Governments can further accelerate the growth
ables suggesting the country could well achieve of renewables by addressing key barriers, such
a peak in its CO2 emissions well before 2030.” as permitting and grid integration challenges,
social acceptance issues, inconsistent policy
Tech take-down approaches, and insufficient remuneration.
Solar PV remains the powerhouse of growth in High financing costs in the developing world
renewable electricity, with its capacity additions are also a major obstacle. In the report’s accel-
forecast to increase by 17% in 2021 to a new erated case, which assumes some of these hur-
record of almost 160GW. dles are overcome, average annual renewable
In the same time frame, onshore wind addi- capacity additions are one-quarter higher in the
tions are set to be almost one-quarter higher on period to 2026 than is forecast in the main case.
average than during the 2015-20 period. Total However, even this faster deployment would
offshore wind capacity is forecast to more than still fall well short of what would be needed
triple by 2026. in a global pathway to net zero emissions by
The IEA report expects this record growth mid-century. That would require renewable
for renewables to take place despite today’s high power capacity additions over the period 2021-
commodity and transport prices. However, 26 to average almost double the rate of the
should commodity prices remain high through report’s main case.
the end of next year, the cost of wind investments It would also mean growth in biofuels
would go back up to levels last seen in 2015 and demand averaging four times higher than in the
three years of cost reductions for solar PV would main case, and renewable heat demand almost
be erased. three times higher.™

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