Page 30 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

the country at the end of 2019. The development bank’s current
forecasts are for 3.2% growth in 2022, 2.3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.

Looking further ahead, the World Bank expects private consumption to
return as a key driver of GDP growth in the medium term, while private
investment could provide further support to growth if business climate
reforms are implemented. The decline in poverty is also expected to
continue.

However, it warned: “Enduring geopolitical tensions could further
increase inflation, disrupt supply chains and disturb financial markets;
all of which could further dim Albania’s growth prospects.”

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has
maintained its 3.0% GDP growth forecast for Albania in 2022 while
lowering its projection for 2023 by 0.3 of a percentage point (pp) also to
3.0%.

This is broadly in line with forecasts for the Emerging Europe region,
where the EBRD raised projections for many countries for 2022
following a better-than-expected performance in the first half of the
year, but lowered them for 2023 in its latest Regional Economic
Prospects report published in September.

According to the EBRD: “Key risks to the near-term outlook include
rising inflation and tightened financing conditions, which are set to
dampen household consumption and investment. On the positive side,
the strong tourism season will boost external and fiscal accounts ahead
of the challenging heating season and lead growth in the third quarter
of 2022.”

30 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com