Page 35 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

2.2 Macroeconomy - Bosnia & Herzegovina

XXX key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 15.2 16.0 17.0 18.0 17.4 18.8 19.7

Real GDP (% y/y) 3.1 3.2 3.7 2.8 -3.1 7.5 2.4

Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) -1.6 0.8 1.4 0.6 -1.1 2.0 10.5

Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) -0.3 0.7 1.6 -0.1 -1.6 6.3 9.5

General budget balance (% of GDP) 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.9 -5.3 -0.3 -0.5

Public debt (% of GDP) 29.2 26.0 24.5 23.1 25.5 24.8 22.8

Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -4.8 -3.3 -2.6 -3.3 -2.3 -2.5

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) 5.4 6.1 7.0 7.2 8.1 8.4

EUR/LC (avg) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

USD/LC (avg) 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Source: Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, IMF, CBBH, World Bank

2.2.1 GDP growth

Bosnia’s economic growth is seen slowing down in 2023 due to the
effects of the Russian war in Ukraine. According to the World Bank, the
GDP growth will slow to 2.8% in 2023 from an estimated 4% in 2022. It
should pick up in 2024, expanding by 3.2%. In 2021, the GDP
expanded by 7.59%, reversing a 3.1% contraction the previous year.

The economic growth will be driven mainly by private consumption
supported by remittances and a tightening labour market.

Investment in energy and infrastructure will affect economic growth over
the medium term, although not to the same extent as in 2021 and 2022,
according to the World Bank. At the same time, strong exports are likely
to be offset by higher imports in part for infrastructure projects.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has
projected that Bosnia’s economic growth will slow down to 2.3% in 2023
from an estimated 3% in 2022. The EBRD noted that the worsening

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