Page 39 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

Bosnia’s industrial output decreased 1.2% y/y in November, after falling
by 3% y/y in October, with the performance only of the manufacturing
sector remaining positive, according to the latest available working-day
adjusted data from the country’s statistics office.

Although Bosnia’s industry expanded in 2022, it was affected by the
global economic crisis caused by the Russian war of aggression in
Ukraine, which led to the slowdown since June.

Manufacturing production increased 1.2% y/y after falling by 0.9% y/y in
October. Within manufacturing, the strongest y/y increase took place in
motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (up 42.3% y/y), while the
deepest decline was reported for tobacco (down 100%).

Mining production decreased by 1.2% y/y in November, after falling by
11% y/y in October. Output decreased y/y in mining of metal ores (down
17.9% y/y), while it increased in other mining and quarrying (up 8.3%
y/y) and mining of coal and lignite (up 0.8% y/y).

Utilities output decreased 9% y/y in November, after falling 10.3% y/y in
October.

Across the main industrial groups, production increased y/y in capital
goods (up 8.6% y/y), while it decreased in durable consumer goods
(down 7.3% y/y), energy (down 7% y/y), non-durable consumer goods
(down 1.3% y/y) and intermediate goods (down 14% y/y).

2.3 Macroeconomy - Bulgaria

Bulgaria key economic figures and forecasts

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Nominal GDP (BGN bn) 95.4 102.7 110.0 120.4 120.0 139

Real GDP (% y/y) 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.4

Unemployment rate (avg, %) 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.2 5.1 5.3

Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.8 2.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 3.3 ?

Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 0.1 2.8 2.3 3.8 0.1 7.8 ?

Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.9 -2.2 3.1 3.2

Source: IMF, World Bank, Bulgarian National Bank, statistics office

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