Page 40 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

2.3.1 GDP growth

Bulgaria’s economic growth is seen by between just 0.1% and 3% in
2023 as the country is strongly affected by the Russian war in Ukraine,
while the domestic political situation remains highly unstable.

The European Commission is more optimistic in its expectations,
projecting Bulgaria’s 2023 economic growth at 1.1%, down from an
estimated 3.1% in 2022. The slowdown would be a result of lower
domestic and foreign demand.

Fitch Ratings expects that Bulgaria’s economic growth will slow down to
1.4% in 2023 from expected 3.5% in 2022 due to slowing private and
public consumption. In 2014, GDP growth is seen at around 3%. The
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD’s)
projection is almost the same as that of Fitch – for 1.5% economic
growth in 2023.

The World Bank projected that Bulgaria’s real GDP growth would be
1.7% in 2023, down from an estimated 2.9% in 2022. The global lender
has noted that Bulgaria’s economic growth will slow down in line with
global and EU trends, but that reforms and investment under the
National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the EU Multiannual
Financial Framework would help sustain growth.

On the most optimistic side, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
projects Bulgaria’s economic growth at 3% in 2023, slowing from an
estimated 3.9% in 2022. However, that projection was made in the
IMF’s October edition of the World Economic Outlook and was based
on older data.

2.3.2 External environment

The World Bank has projected that Bulgaria will swing to a current
account surplus in 2023, at 0.1% of GDP, from an estimated deficit of

40 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com