Page 25 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo erupted in autumn 2022,
following Pristina’s decision to impose new rules on car number plates
for Serbs living in the northern part of Kosovo.

The dispute had already led to protests and an escalation of tensions in
Serb-dominated northern Kosovo. EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell
warned earlier this month that Kosovo and Serbia were on the edge of
another conflict.

The chief negotiators for Belgrade and Pristina finally reached an
agreement on the bitter dispute over car number plates late on
November 23 that started to ease the tense situation in northern
Kosovo. A crisis was again averted at the end of December, following
heavy pressure from the EU and US.

Longer term, neither state can make progress towards EU accession
unless they reach an agreement on normalisation of their relations.
Serbia refuses to recognise Kosovo’s independence, and, backed by
Russia and China, has kept Serbia out of international organisations.

On the international stage, while condemning the invasion of Ukraine,
Serbia has refused to impose sanctions on Russia, citing the two
countries' friendly relationship and Russia’s support over the Kosovo
issue, despite pressure to do so from EU and US officials.

Vucic has long pursued a ‘four pillar’ foreign policy, aiming at good
relations with the EU, the US, Russia and China. While Serbia’s biggest
trading partners are EU countries, it relies on Russian gas imports, and
signed a new contract with Gazprom on favourable terms earlier this
year.

However, this balancing act became increasingly untenable after the
invasion of Ukraine. Speaking in October, Vucic described Serbia as
the stage for a proxy war between East and West.

Western impatience with Serbia has been growing, causing its EU
accession progress to stall. MEPs voted by an overwhelming majority in
favour of a recommendation calling for the enlargement process to be
“re-energised” – but only for countries that align with EU sanctions
policy on Russia.

Singling out Serbia, which has refused to join Western sanctions on
Russia, the resolution said accession negotiations with the country
“should advance only if the country supports EU sanctions against
Russia and makes significant progress on EU-related reforms”. The
recommendation is not binding on EU members, but it reflects the
unhappiness with Serbia’s refusal to align with the bloc’s foreign policy.

25 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com