Page 23 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

1.9 Politics - Romania

The solid majority of the ruling coalition in Romania leaves room for
only internal tensions, likely to intensify as the general elections
scheduled for 2024 approach. The main concern is related to the lack
of relevant opposition, as neither the reformist Union Save Romania
(USR) nor the radical Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) is
developing into a relevant challenger able to threaten the dominance of
the two ruling parties, the National Liberal Party (PNL) and Social
Democratic Party (PSD).

Romania’s ruling coalition, forged and backed by President Klaus
Iohannis in 2021, is heading towards a crucial moment when the prime
minister seat should be handed over by the PNL to the PSD in the
spring of 2023. With a super-electoral year in 2024 (local, general and
presidential votes), the harmony seen so far among the members of the
ruling coalition may come to an end this year, although it’s hard to say
what will trigger this. It’s likely that more disputes will be caused by the
economy than by justice or rule of law, as economic conditions remain
challenging.

Romania managed to have the Cooperation and Verification
Mechanism (CVM), introduced after its EU accession to monitor
progress on fighting corruption, ended in 2022, but Schengen
membership remains a target for 2023. After the final enactment of the
new justice laws, the EU Council, on the recommendation of the
European Commission, lifted the CVM for Romania. Romania adopted
new justice laws, which were promulgated by Iohannis. The Venice
Commission reported that the laws seem to be going in the right
direction and appreciate the fact that “there doesn’t seem to be any
political interference in [the National Anticorruption Directorate] DNA’s
activity”. However, there were also a number of recommendations
made.

Political stability does not prevent public sentiment from deteriorating
significantly. 76% of the Romanians polled by IRES during December
7-12 believe that their country is moving in the wrong direction and 57%
of them said that 2022 was a worse year for them, compared to 2021.
Politicians’ confidence ratings dropped below that of central bank
governor Mugur Isarescu, which slipped below 40% (to 39%) as well.
Thus, the most trusted politicians are Iohannis (trusted by 21% of
Romanians) and PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu (20%). Prime Minister and
PNL leader Nicolae Ciuca come close (19%). However, when it comes
to politicians in general, only 6% of Romanians trust them.

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