Page 20 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

European Commission has to evaluate Moldova’s progress on its
recommendations submitted in 2022, when admitting the country as a
potential candidate.

After initially adopting a reserved position towards the war in Ukraine,
largely aimed at preventing the escalation of tensions in separatist
Transnistria, but also because of the mixed sentiment among the local
population, President Maia Sandu blamed Russia for its invasion in
Ukraine.

The Transnistrian conflict remains frozen as the moderate
(business-oriented) faction in the separatist region has prevailed so far.
The gas-for-electricity agreement between the central authorities in
Chisinau and the separatists in Transnistria, which doesn’t seem to
have Moscow’s blessing, is an illustration of this complex situation. The
balance is, however, fragile and tensions could escalate, especially if
Russia gets more involved. A bill incriminating separatism, which
passed in the first reading in Chisinau, is an example of the type of
opportunity Russia could use to justify more direct intervention in
Transnistria if or when this is needed.

Justice reform is advancing slowly, some decisions are problematic and
the major investigations carried out by newly-appointed prosecutors
against pro-Russian politicians such as former president Igor Dodon,
fugitive businessmen Ilan Shor and Vlad Plahotniuc, controversial
businessman Veaceslav Platon or allegedly corrupt magistrates such as
former general prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo are dragging on. New
legislation appears to be getting drafted for individual cases, even
though existing legislation would allow proper prosecution. This is the
case for the so-called Moldovan Magnitsky Law (still a draft), drawn up
to target local politicians and oligarchs, even though they are subject to
existing legislation.

As regards the balance of power and the electoral sentiment in
Moldova, the pro-EU president and her Action and Solidarity party
(PAS) are leading in polls – but the opposition parties are, taken
together, stronger. The balance is fragile and the outcome of the next
parliamentary elections depends on economic developments. The
justice reforms, which failed so far to meet voters’ expectations, are
equally important.

1.7 Politics - Montenegro

After a tense political year in 2022, Montenegro entered 2023 at peak
of political instability due to a deadlock regarding the formation of a new

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