Page 15 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

Within the Western Balkans region, Albania is one of the founders of
the Open Balkan area (previously dubbed ‘mini Schengen’), alongside
North Macedonia and Serbia, and Rama is an advocate for deeper
regional integration.

1.2 Politics - Bosnia

After holding a general election on October 2, Bosnia set a record in its
political history by establishing all levels of government within two
months. Previously, it had been widely expected that politicians would
stall the process for years as had happened in the past.

Instead, a coalition agreement was signed in early December between
the main Croat and Serb parties – HDZ BiH and SNSD – and nine
formerly opposition Bosniak parties. That ousted the SDA, the Bosniak
party that had ruled for many years, from power.

Bosnia comprises two autonomous entities – the Muslim-Croat
Federation and Republika Srpska, as well as the autonomous Brcko
district. Each of them has its own parliament, government and president
and there are also state-level institutions.

By the end of December, Bosnians had elected governments at all
levels with the state-level one being headed by the Croat Borjana
Kristo.

Also in December Bosnia got its long-awaited EU candidate status,
which could be a game changer for local politics by bringing the Balkan
state closer to the Western orbit and diminishing the Russian influence
in Republika Srpska.

The leader of the SNSD, Milorad Dodik, who is now president of
Republika Srpska, is openly pro-Russian and has for years threatened
that his entity will secede from Bosnia.

Dodik keeps threatening the secession of Republika Srpska and is
expected to keep blocking the work of state-level institutions and raising
political tensions in the country.

As the secessionist threat has been on the table for years, it is hard to
predict whether Dodik would take actual steps to fulfill his threats. So
far, he has repeatedly backed off under rising international pressure.
However, there are fears that he might spark a conflict in Bosnia if
ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin whose loyal ally Dodik
remains.

15 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com