Page 16 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

1.3 Politics - Bulgaria

The political crisis that started in 2020 with the months-long mass
anti-corruption protests deepened in the following two years, producing
four general elections in 18 months and increasingly fragmented
parliaments that make the formation of a stable ruling majority close to
impossible.

After the October 2, 2022 general election, seven parties made it into
the parliament with no clear majority on the horizon. This increased the
powers of President Rumen Radev, who appoints the caretaker
governments and determines the country’s internal and foreign policy in
the absence of a working parliament and regular government.

As the first two out of three mandates for forming a government seem
doomed to fail, all political parties seem focused on entering a new
election campaign rather than seeking to find a working formula for
government.

The winner, former ruling party Gerb, got just 25.3% of the votes. Its
leader Boyko Borissov said he wanted a pro-Western coalition with
reformist pro-Western Change Continues (the second-largest party in
parliament with around 20% of votes) and Democratic Bulgaria, as well
as with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS). However,
neither Change Continues nor Democratic Bulgaria want to enter in
coalition with Gerb and DPS due to their involvement in several major
corruption scandals and the lack of will for in-depth reform of the
judiciary and the fight against top-level corruption.

As expected, Gerb’s attempt to form a government with the first
mandate failed and on January 3 Radev gave the second one to
Change Continues. Unsurprisingly, Change Continues’ attempt to find
support for its policies also failed and in early January the party decided
to give up the mandate.

Radev has said that, should the first two mandates fail, he would give
the last mandate in January so that another snap vote could be held in
March in case of failure of that mandate. The vote is expected around
mid-March in that case.

There are expectations, however, that Radev would give the last
mandate to the smallest party in parliament – Bulgarian Ascend – led
by his former advisor and former caretaker prime minister Stefan
Yanev. That mandate could theoretically produce a ruling coalition with
the support of the three parties dubbed ‘the paper coalition’ – Gerb, the
DPS and the BSP.

If such a coalition is formed, it is widely expected that it would not
undertake any reforms of the judiciary, and the widespread top-level

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