Page 7 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

Executive summary

The war in Ukraine had a seismic effect on the security, political and
economic landscape of Southeast Europe. It is just across the border
for Moldova and Romania and in the near neighbourhood for most of
Southeast Europe.

Fears of a spillover into the region were not realised in 2022, but there
are still concerns that Russia could seek to embroil Moldova — part of
which is controlled by Russia-backed separatists — in the war, or to
cause tensions to overflow in existing hotspots such as northern
Kosovo or Bosnia’s Republika Srpska.

Moldova is the only country in the region facing a potential military
threat from the war. Ever since the invasion in February there has been
speculation that Russia might push through from Ukraine to the
separatist republic of Transnistria in Moldova, or that Moldova itself
might be dragged into the war.

This has not happened, mainly as a result of Chisinau’s caution — it
has not imposed sanctions on Russia despite moving closer to the
West during 2022 — and because of the efforts by both Chisinau and
Tiraspol to ensure that the conflict between the two sides of the country
does not escalate. However, towards the end of the year tensions
increased as cuts in deliveries of Russian gas put the squeeze on both
Moldova proper and Moscow-backed Transnistria.

Most of the other countries in the region are either Nato members or
aspiring members. The Nato presence has been stepped up in
countries like Romania that are on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank.

Western Balkan flashpoints

Other security issues facing the region are internal, though some of
these divisions have been amplified by the conflict further east.

At the beginning of 2022, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel identified
Bosnia & Herzegovina as one of the two most critical flashpoints in
Europe, along with Ukraine. The international security presence in both
Bosnia and Kosovo was stepped up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
over fears Moscow might destabilise one or both of the volatile
situations in the Western Balkans.

In Bosnia, Milodad Dodik, president of the country’s Serb entity
Republika Srpska, has been loudly repeating threats that the entity will
secede from Bosnia for years. However, fears that a more serious

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