Page 9 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

been under heavy pressure to join sanctions on Russia. So far, the
Serbian government has refused to do so because of Belgrade’s
long-standing relations with Russia as well as Moscow’s backing over
the Kosovo issue.

This has damaged Serbia’s standing with the West and led to calls from
MEPs and other European politicians for Serbia’s EU accession
process to be frozen. Moving into 2023 there seems no immediate
prospect of a change of stance by Belgrade; such a step would be
highly difficult politically given the loud pro-Russian voices within
Serbia.

Moldova has long had a highly polarised political landscape. The
landslide victories of President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and
Solidarity, in 2020 and 2021 respectively, looked set to propel the small
country on a Western course. However, despite notable steps such as
securing EU candidate status, Sandu’s promised reforms have
foundered amid the country’s pressing economic problems.

The window for Sandu and her PAS to make long-lasting reforms on
issues such as corruption and the rule of law is closing as elections
loom in 2024 and 2025 that may see the return to power of the
pro-Russian Socialists or parties tarnished by corruption such as the
Democratic Party or Shor Party. 2023 will be critical in this regard. The
PAS’ government is already under heavy pressure from regular mass
anti-government protests organised by the Shor Party.

Power vacuums

Orientation vis a vis Russia and the West also emerged as a new rift in
Bulgarian politics ahead of the October 2022 general election. This
delivered a fragmented new parliament and the loose alliance that had
previously been working to tackle corruption — the reformist Change
Continues and Democratic Bulgaria together with the Bulgarian
Socialist Party and President Rumen Radev — collapsed, with the
former firmly in the Western camp and the latter two taking a more
pro-Russian tack.

Three months on from the general election there is little hope of a new
government being formed — much less a reform-oriented one with the
will and political capital to tackle corruption — and yet another snap
election is expected in March.

A third country in political disarray is Montenegro, where efforts by a
coalition of around 20 small parties to install a government under
Demos leader Miodrag Lekic fell through in January. This followed a
lengthy standoff with President Milo Djukanovic, who refused to give a

9 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com