Page 8 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

attempt to secede might be made in 2022 — possibly at the instigation
of Dodo’s political ally Russian President Vladimir Putin — did not
materialise.

Additional tensions came from the actions of the international
community’s high representative in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt, whose
high-handed decision to change the electoral rules on October 2 —
election day in Bosnia — drew widespread condemnation from within
and outside the country.

On the other hand, Bosnia was drawn closer into the Western camp in
December when it was given long-awaited EU candidate status, despite
the sluggish pace of reform resulting from repeated political deadlocks.
Another positive development was the unusually speedy formation of
new governments at state and entity level following the October
elections.

Standoff in northern Kosovo

The other major security flashpoint in the Southeast Europe region in
northern Kosovo, where the situation deteriorated dramatically in the
second half of 2022. A standoff was triggered by the mundane but
politically sensitive issue of car number plates; the Kosovan
government required that cars across the country including the mainly
ethnic Serb northern Kosovo have number plates with the RKS code
rather than the old neutral status KS.

Tensions over the issue led to mass protests, road barricades and a
walkout of state institutions by ethnic Serb officials. The situation was
only eased right at the end of 2022, under heavy pressure from the EU
and the US. However, the situation remains volatile and the next crisis
point is expected to be reached in April, when local elections to replace
officials that quit in 2022 are due to take place.

Between Russia and the West

Even where there was no security threat, the war in Ukraine and the
new geopolitical situation added to existing tensions and created new
political rifts in a number of countries in the region. In much of
Southeast Europe, even some EU members, the question of whether to
steer Westwards or maintain a close relationship with Russia remains
open.

This has become problematic for Serbia, where President Aleksander
Vucic has continued with his long-standing policy of seeking friendly
relations with both Russia and the West, as well as China. This has
served the country well in the past, but post-invasion Belgrade has

8 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com