Page 10 - AsiaElec Week 43 2020

AsiaElec RENEWABLES AsiaElec

Wind, solar to dominate by 2050

GLOBAL WIND and solar PV will meet 56% of world elec- electricity provision in transport, industry and
tricity demand by 2050, BloombergNEF found buildings. The rest is used to manufacture green
in its 2020 New Energy Outlook (NEO). hydrogen.
The share could reach 70-80% in some coun- The Climate Scenario foresees that green
tries, with wind regaining its market lead from hydrogen would provide just under a quarter of
solar, the NEO outlined in its Economic Transi- total final energy supply in 2050.
tion Scenario. This would need 800mn tonnes of fuel and
BloombergNEF said that this prospect is 36,000 TWh of electricity – that is 38% more
based on a huge build-out of what it termed power than is produced in the world today. This
super-competitive wind and solar power, as could be met with a further 14 TW of renewables
well as the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and or 4 TW of new nuclear.
improved energy efficiency across industries. Finally, reducing emissions well below 2
Together, investment in wind, solar and bat- degrees using clean electricity and green hydro-
teries will account for 80% of the $15.1 trillion gen would require between $78 trillion and $130
invested in new power capacity over the next 30 trillion of new investment between now and
years. An additional $14 trillion will be invested 2050.
in the grid to 2050. This equates to $64 trillion in power genera-
However, the report also offers an NEO Cli- tion and the electricity grid for direct electricity
mate Scenario, which examines how to reduce provision, and between $14 trillion and $66 tril-
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to limit tem- lion on hydrogen manufacturing, transport and
perature rise to 2 degrees. Otherwise, tempera- storage.
tures are likely to rise by 3.3 degrees by 2100, the Seb Henbest, chief economist at BNEF and
report predicts. lead author of NEO 2020, said: “Our projections
Jon Moore, CEO of BNEF, commented: “The for the power system have become even more
next ten years will be crucial for the energy tran- bullish for renewables than in previous years,
sition. There are three key things that we will based purely on cost dynamics. What this year’s
need to see: accelerated deployment of wind and study highlights is the tremendous opportunity
PV; faster consumer uptake in electric vehicles, for low-carbon power to help decarbonise trans-
small-scale renewables, and low-carbon heating port, buildings and industry – both through
technology, such as heat pumps; and scaled-up direct electrification and via green hydrogen.”
development and deployment of zero-carbon
fuels.” Fossil fuels
The Economic Transition Scenario foresees While electrification and hydrogen are the key
that global carbon emissions from energy use elements of the future energy sector, fossil fuels
will drop 8% in 2020, meaning that they peaked will persist.
in 2019. Oil demand is forecast to peak in 2035 and
Emissions could rise again with economic then fall by 0.7% y/y to return to 2018 levels in
recovery towards 2027 but then decline 0.7% 2050.
year on year to 2050, putting the world on track EVs are set to reach upfront price parity
for 3.3 degrees of warming in 2100. with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
However, the Climate Scenario says that to before 2025, spurring faster adoption thereafter.
keep global warming well below two degrees, The growth of EVs offsets demand growth
emissions need to fall 10 times faster, at 6% y/y in aviation, shipping and petrochemicals, and
to 2050. For 1.5 degrees, the required rate is 10%. shapes the future of oil.
In total, coronavirus (COVID-19) subtracts Gas is the only fossil fuel set to grow continu-
some 2.5 years’ worth of aggregate emissions ously, gaining 0.5% y/y to 2050.
over the next 30 years. Cumulative growth of 33% in buildings and
In terms of investment, renewables and bat- 23% in industry is balanced by declining gas use
teries are set to capture 80% of the total $15.1 tril- in power, where consumption peaked in 2019 –
lion invested in new power generating capacity although gas-fired power capacity continues to
between now and 2050. Around $2 trillion, or grow worldwide.
13%, is invested by households and businesses, Crucially, cheap gas is predicted ultimately to
with Asia-Pacific attracting 45% of all new slow the energy transition in the United States.
capital. Coal is the major loser, as demand peaked
The NEO Climate Scenario calls for 100,000 in 2018 and is set to collapse to 18% of primary
TWh of power generation by 2050 of annual energy demand by mid-century, from 26%
clean electricity and hydrogen production. today. It is in freefall across Europe and the US.
This power system would be 6-8 times bigger Coal-fired power will peak in China in 2027
than today’s green system, and would have dou- and in India in 2030. But despite improvements
ble the peak demand and generate five times the in energy efficiency and recycling, primary coal
electricity. demand will continue to grow in industry.™
Two thirds of this electricity goes to direct

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