Page 10 - AfrElec Week 47 2021

AfrElec COAL AfrElec

Coal phase-out could take

longer than thought

ASIA THERMAL coal demand is expected to rise until for new unabated coal-fired power generation
the mid-2020s, despite the COP26 agreement, projects, as well as ending new construction of
Wood McKenzie said in the aftermath of the UN unabated coal-fired power generation projects
climate summit in Glasgow. and ending new direct government support
“The uncomfortable truth is that while coal for unabated international coal-fired power
is an unwelcome guest at the decarbonisation generation.
table, we will still need coal-fired power to ensure Kettle stressed that China, India and the US,
an orderly transition to a low-carbon world,” said which have the world’s three largest coal-fired
Julian Kettle, senior vice president and vice-chair power fleets, signed the document. It could
of metals and mining at Wood Mackenzie. therefore be seen as “something of a Pyrrhic vic-
“Under our base case Energy Transition Out- tory against coal.”
look (ETO), which is aligned to a 2.7°C warming “China, which possesses the largest coal-
scenario, demand for thermal coal will peak in fired power plant capacity, has committed to
2025 at just over 7 billion tonnes, falling by just peak carbon emissions, yet has made no firm
5% to 6.7 billion tonnes in 2030,” said Kettle. commitment to reduce reliance on coal,” he said.
“However, to achieve our AET-2, 2°C path- “Meanwhile, in the US, President Joe Biden’s
way, demand for thermal coal will need to fall by plan for a zero-carbon grid by 2035 arguably
a billion tonnes by 2030 and an AET-1.5 pathway embraces the spirit of the COP26 text. How-
removes a further 1.9 billion tonnes of demand. ever, the devil is in the detail and there are not
This is a dramatic 2.4 billion-tonne reduction inconsiderable political challenges; not the least
compared with the current base case peak in of these is the possibility of a significant reversal
2025.” in policy should the next presidential election be
He said that the scale of the challenge of such won by the Republicans.”
a dramatic reduction of coal demand should not In his view, India was also late to the decar-
be underestimated given the implications for bonization pledge party but at least has com-
electricity supply in an increasingly electrified mitted to net neutrality by 2070. More urgently,
world. it has pledged to reduce its projected carbon
Kettle was also critical of the Global Coal to emissions by a billion tonnes, to 50% renewables
Clean Power Transition Statement, which was share of power generation and to reduce the car-
signed at the COP26 by 52 countries, five sub-na- bon intensity of its economy by 45% by 2030.
tional governments and 26 other organisations. “That’s a tough ask for an economy projected
The countries committed to a rapid scale-up to grow by 6-7% a year over the next decade,”
of clean power generation and energy efficiency Kettle said. “If the non-delivery against commit-
measures in their economies and support for ments made at COP Paris in 2015 is anything to
other countries carrying out the same. go by, success by 2030 looks to be a long shot and
They also called for a rapid scale-up of tech- is by no means guaranteed.
nologies and policies to achieve a transition “To paraphrase Mark Twain, who upon hear-
away from unabated coal power generation in ing rumours that he had in fact died was quoted
the 2030s for major economies and in the 2040s as saying ‘the reports of my death are greatly
globally. exaggerated,’ I think the same can be said of
They also agreed to cease issuing new permits coal!”™

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 47 25•November•2021